Date first published: 08/04/2025
Key sectors: all
Key risks: political stability; political impasse; separatism; civil war
Risk development
On 27 March Bosnia and Herzegovina issued an international arrest warrant for Republika Srpska (RS) President Milorad Dodik and the Speaker of the National Assembly of RS, Nenad Stevandic, after they left the country despite a national arrest warrant issued by the state-level court on 17 March.
The arrest warrants marked the latest development in escalating tensions between Sarajevo and Banja Luka over the latter’s defiance of the decisions made by High Representative (OHR) Christian Schmidt – an international official overseeing the Dayton Peace Accords. On 26 February Dodik was sentenced to one year in prison and a six-year ban on serving as RS’s president for failing to comply with Schmidt’s rulings in July 2023.
Following the verdict, Banja Luka adopted a series of controversial laws, including ones prohibiting state-level institutions and law enforcement agencies from operating in RS. Although the country’s Constitutional Court temporarily suspended the laws on 6 March, Dodik insisted they would be implemented. On 14 March RS’s National Assembly adopted a new draft constitution, which would establish parallel state institutions – including the judiciary and the army – and assert its right to self-determination.
Why it matters
The current crisis is the most serious since the end of the war in 1995, pushing the country to the brink of collapse. The new draft constitution undermines the country’s constitutional order by disregarding the supremacy of state institutions. If tensions continue to escalate – in the absence of international pressure to resolve the crisis – it could lead to the breakdown of the Dayton Accords. Reports emerged in early March that Banja Luka had threatened to withdraw from the peace agreement in an informal note to foreign diplomats.
RS’s increasing assertiveness and heightened tensions have raised concerns about renewed violence, particularly given that it has only been 30 years since the Dayton Agreement ended the three-year-long brutal war fought along ethnic lines. This prompted the European Union (EU) to reinforce its presence in the country, and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte to visit and reassure the country of the alliance’s “unwavering support” for its territorial integrity.
Background
Despite initially supporting the Dayton Accords and cooperating with the international community, over the past 10 years Dodik has taken an increasingly nationalist and secessionist stance, centred on criticism of Schmidt, whom Dodik considers “illegitimate” due to the lack of a UN Security Council resolution approving his appointment.
Dodik enjoys the support of Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, with the latter blocking EU efforts to sanction him.
Risk outlook
Despite Dodik’s hostile actions against state institutions, they have continued to function, showing stronger resilience than expected, with institutions under attack still operating in RS. Additionally, after a period of uncertainty regarding United States (US) President Donald Trump’s policy toward Bosnia, on 8 March US Secretary of State Marco Rubio openly condemned Dodik’s actions, called on political leaders in the country to engage in dialogue and urged Washington’s partners to push back against “dangerous and destabilising behaviour.”
Washington’s strong stance – paired with strong statements from major European economies and Turkey – mitigates the risk of further escalation in the short term. The EU and NATO presence in the country also significantly reduces the risk of renewed violence.
However, tensions are likely to remain high between Sarajevo and Banja Luka, and resolving the crisis will prove difficult, particularly given the lack of unity among EU member states and Washington’s unpredictable foreign policy.
