Americas: Argentina’s ATE public sector union to protest against wage agreement on 23 April
Sectors: all
Key Risks: industrial action
In Argentina, on 15 April the public sector union, the State Workers Association (ATE), announced a day of protests scheduled for 23 April in Buenos Aires to reject the collective bargaining agreement. The ATE denounced the agreement’s 1.3 per cent wage increase for March, April and May, as being below the 3.7 per cent March inflation and the 13 per cent peso devaluation as part of President Javier Milei’s austerity measures. The union also noted that the US$20bln IMF bailout package approved on 11 April would lead to structural adjustment policies that will squeeze the public sector. The protest is set to begin simultaneously in all public agencies at 11:00 local time, with strikes and work stoppages highly likely. Traffic and public service disruptions are expected, with the risk of further strikes and protests remaining heightened in the coming weeks.
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Asia Pacific: Myanmar junta extends ceasefire to 30 April
Sectors: all
Key Risks: war on land; violent clashes; civil war
In Myanmar, on 22 April the military government announced an extension to the 2 April ceasefire, originally declared to provide humanitarian relief following the 28 March earthquake. The ceasefire has now been extended until 30 April, following junta leader Min Aung Hlaing’s discussions with Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim – who advocated for the extension – in Bangkok on 18 April. However, the ceasefire’s integrity is likely to remain highly frail, with observers stating that fighting continued during the original ceasefire’s period and the military stating that it “would not hesitate to respond if armed groups launched attacks”. Myanmar’s civilian-led opposition National Unity Government (NUG) also agreed to the extension after speaking with Anwar, who then stated that both sides “would do whatever is necessary to avoid an extension of hostilities”. Nevertheless, ceasefire violations remain highly likely.
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Eurasia: Ukraine and US make progress on minerals deal, expect accord within week
Sectors: all; oil and gas; mining
Key Risks: economic risks
On 17 April Ukraine and the US signed a memorandum of intent on advancing a key minerals deal between the two sides, stating they hoped to finalise a full economic accord within a week. This followed weeks of talks on a US proposal which expanded Washington’s economic demands, after on 25 February the two sides reached a preliminary deal on a joint investment fund to develop Kyiv’s mineral resources, including oil and gas. Talks were prolonged by tensions between the two countries’ leaders and Kyiv’s concerns that the deal could threaten Kyiv’s EU accession. However, Ukrainian officials stated they had aligned the latest deal closer with their interests. It remained unclear if Kyiv had secured concrete US security guarantees, which it had repeatedly demanded. Progress on the deal is likely as the two sides work to bridge divides over the deal’s terms.
Click here to access Ukraine’s Global Intake profile and here to access the US’ Global Intake profile.
Europe: Kosovo’s National Assembly to vote on speaker on 23 April to break legislative deadlock
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stability
In Kosovo, on 19 April the National Assembly again failed to elect its speaker, delaying the government formation process after the 9 February general election. This followed the assembly’s failure to verify new MPs’ mandates on 17 April after the Commission for Verification of MPs’ mandates failed to reach a consensus. The MPs were eventually verified at the 19 April session, but Vetevendosje – the largest party in the Assembly – saw its nominee for speaker, Albulena Haxhiu, fail to secure sufficient votes to assume the role, prolonging the legislative deadlock. Haxhiu remained Vetevendosje’s nominee for the next vote on 21 April, which was adjourned shortly after Vetevendosje requested additional time for negotiations. The next session will take place on 23 April, with Vetevendosje likely to propose another candidate. However, another delay to the government formation process cannot be ruled out as difficult negotiations to form a government continue.
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MENA: 80 killed as US airstrikes hit the Huthi-controlled Ras Issa oil terminal in Yemen
Sectors: all
Key risks: war on land; war at sea
In Yemen, on 17 April at least 80 people were killed and 171 others were injured in a series of US airstrikes targeting the Ras Issa oil terminal, Al Hudaydah province. This marked the deadliest US attack since Washington resumed its bombing campaign on 15 March and the first strike on a Huthi-controlled oil facility, aimed at cutting off funding for the group and sending a warning to Tehran ahead of nuclear talks on 19 April. Hours after, the Huthis fired a missile – later intercepted – toward Israel and downed another US MQ-9 Predator drone. Ras Issa, the only major oil terminal controlled by the Huthis, is crucial for their ability to import fuel into the country, which now faces the threat of an energy crisis. Further strikes are highly likely in the short term, with US operations set to intensify over the coming weeks.
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Sub-Saharan Africa: 70 soldiers killed in deadliest JNIM attack in Benin’s history
Sectors: all
Key risks: internal conflict; terrorism; insurgency
In Benin, on 16 April 70 soldiers were reportedly killed during an attack by Jama’at Nasr al Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) near Chutes du Koudou Alibori Department. The group also looted weaponry, ammunition and three drones. Although JNIM presence in the country is limited, the westward shift of JNIM affiliate Katiba Hanifa from western Niger to the Burkina Faso-Benin border has exposed the Alibori department to attack and infiltration. Porto-Novo made efforts in previous months to bolster northern defences following the 9 January attack by JNIM on Point Triple, Alibori department, but have seen little success in countering the militant threat. Facing an intensifying insurgency in the north, the government will increase counter-insurgency measures, including an announcement on 18 April to hire 100 drone operators to improve reconnaissance. However, continuing instability in southwestern Burkina Faso and western Niger will leave the northern departments vulnerable to future attacks.
Click here to access Benin’s Global Intake profile.
