Americas: Various unions, organisations to stage anti-government strikes throughout Peru
Sectors: all
Key Risks: civil unrest; violent clashes; business disruption
In Peru, on 14 May numerous unions and organisations – including commercial, student and labour – will stage a day of nationwide strikes against President Dina Boluarte’s government’s failure to effectively address rising violence in the country. This came after on 4 May the bodies of 13 gold mine workers – who were kidnapped on 30 April – were found, allegedly killed by illegal miners, in Pataz district, La Libertad region. The country has been facing a surge in organised crime violence targeting businesses, with the transportation sector particularly affected by extortion rackets and contract killings, despite the government’s state of emergency measures and military deployment. With thousands expected to attend, business and transport disruptions are expected, especially in Lima, Callao, La Libertad, Arequipa and Puno regions. Although the strikes are expected to remain peaceful, there is a minor risk of vandalism and clashes.
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Asia Pacific: Former prime minister Han Duck-soo withdraws from South Korea’s election bid
Sectors: all
Key Risks: policy continuity; political polarisation
In South Korea, on 11 May former prime minister Han Duck-soo withdrew from the ruling People’s Power Party (PPP)’s nominee contest. The contest, which comes ahead of the 3 June snap general election, fell into a state of conflict when Han resigned as acting president to campaign for the PPP nominee position on 1 May, after the party had already nominated former Employment and Labour Minister Kim Moon-soo. Han’s efforts to campaign as a presidential candidate sparked a rift among the PPP, with rival factions disagreeing over who maintained the most legitimate status as party nominee. Kim Moon-soo and Lee Jae-myung of the opposition Democratic Party are now confirmed as the official nominees for the country’s two largest parties ahead of the 3 June election, with Lee favoured to win the vote.
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Eurasia: Zelensky offers to meet Putin after Russia proposes talks in Istanbul on 15 May
Sectors: all
Key Risks: war-on-land
In Ukraine, on 11 May Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that he would travel to Istanbul on 15 May and was prepared to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin, after Putin proposed direct talks with Kyiv in Turkey. Zelensky also renewed his proposal for a 30-day ceasefire beginning 12 May. However, US President Donald Trump issued a statement instructing Zelensky to meet Putin without awaiting a ceasefire. Moscow has repeatedly rejected Kyiv’s proposed truce and demanded talks on the “root issues” of the conflict before a ceasefire. A unilateral ceasefire Putin had proposed for 8-11 May did not materialise. The EU and US both hinted at additional sanctions on Russia if the latest push fails. While Putin is unlikely to meet Zelensky this week, the two sides may send delegations to begin talks in the coming weeks amid US pressure to reach a deal.
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Europe: Poland, Romania to vote in presidential election on 18 May
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stability
In Poland, on 18 May citizens will head to the polls to vote in the first round of presidential elections. The vote will likely see a battle between Rafal Trzaskowski, the candidate endorsed by Prime Minister Donald Tusk and his Civic Coalition party, who is currently polling at around 32 per cent, and Karol Nawrocki, the candidate backed by the opposition Law and Justice Party (PiS), who is polling at around 22 per cent. The two candidates are likely to face off in the second round on 1 June. On the same day, Romanians will also vote to elect a president, although they will be casting their ballots in the second round, choosing between George Simion, the head of the right-wing populist Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR), and Bucharest’s Mayor Nicosur Dan. While Simion is favoured to win, the race is expected to be tight.
Click here to access Poland’s Global Intake country profile and here to access Romania’s Global Intake country profile.
MENA: PKK formally dissolves, ending armed insurgency against Turkey
Sectors: all; security
Key risks: political stability; insurgency; separatism; targeted attacks
In Turkey, on 12 May the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) formally announced its dissolution, ending its decades-long armed campaign. The decision followed the group’s imprisoned leader Abdullah Ocalan’s call to disarm on 27 February, after months of secret negotiations mediated by European intermediaries. The move aims to secure greater autonomy and political rights for the Kurds. While the disbandment is likely to reduce internal conflict risks in Turkey, it may also raise tensions among Kurdish factions, particularly hardline elements in Syria and Iraq that oppose disarmament. Ankara’s security strategy and approach to Kurdish political movements are likely to evolve, potentially easing crackdowns on Kurdish political parties. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is expected to frame the move as a major counterterrorism victory, bolstering his potential bid for a fourth term despite the constitutional two-term limit.
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Sub-Saharan Africa: Wave of JNIM attacks further exposes insecurity in Burkina Faso
Sectors: all
Key risks: terrorism; internal conflict; regional conflict
In Burkina Faso, on 11 May several soldiers and civilians were killed after al-Qaeda affiliated Jama’at Nasr al Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) launched eight attacks against security installations and towns in the Nord, Centre-Nord, Centre-Est regions. JNIM also captured Djibo military camp in the Sahel region. The 26th Rapid Intervention Battalion (BIR) reportedly took heavy casualties, although the official casualty toll has yet to be announced. The attacks coincided with the return of Transitional President Ibrahim Traore from his visit to Moscow on 10 May. JNIM attacks have intensified since February, with the deadliest attacks in 2025 seeing between 250 and 350 soldiers, civilians and auxiliary forces killed in Diapaga, Est region, and Sourou valley, Boucle du Mouhoun region, in March. Attacks in the north and east are likely to continue for the foreseeable future as the government struggles to contain the insurgency.
Click here to access Burkina Faso’s Global Intake profile.
