Americas: Nationwide protests by former president CFK supporters expected in Argentina
Sectors: all
Key Risks: civil unrest; political stability
In Argentina, on 10 June the Supreme Court upheld two lower courts’ 2022 corruption convictions, confirming former president and opposition Justicialist Party (JP) leader Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner (CFK)’s six-year prison sentence and a lifelong ban from public office. The decision triggered protests in the capital Buenos Aires by CFK’s supporters, including trade unions, university students and left-wing organisations, converging with wider social unrest over President Javier Milei’s austerity policies. The ruling imposes a disqualification on CFK’s candidacy for provincial deputy in the upcoming Buenos Aires legislative elections set for September and may require her to step down as national chair of the JP. With the decision uniting the Peronist movement, protests, roadblocks and union strikes will likely take place across the country in the coming days. Traffic disruption and clashes between protesters and security forces should be expected.
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Asia Pacific: Public support for Japan’s PM Ishiba rises ahead of legislative elections
Sectors: all
Key Risks: government instability; governability; regulatory changes
In Japan, on 16 June Kyodo News Agency released its survey showing that Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s approval ratings had risen to 37 per cent, up from 32 per cent in May. Ishiba’s approval ratings have remained chronically low since his 1 October 2024 inauguration, largely due to allegations of corruption and embezzlement surrounding the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). The increase in ratings is likely a result of Tokyo’s efforts to release government stockpiles of rice, alleviating high prices throughout the country. The ratings are critical for Ishiba to maintain support in the upcoming House of Councillors elections that must be held by 22 July. However, as Ishiba is the leader of a minority government since the country’s 27 October snap election, the legislative election’s outcome may further raise government instability risks.
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Eurasia: Kazakhstan taps Russia, China to build first nuclear power plants
Sectors: all; energy
Key Risks: economic risks; business risks
In Kazakhstan, on 14 June the government tapped Russia’s nuclear energy giant Rosatom to lead a consortium to build its first two-reactor nuclear power plant (NPP) in Ulken, Almaty region, on the western shore of Lake Balkhash. Officials stated they would sign a separate deal with Beijing’s China National Nuclear Corporation (CNCC) to build a second NPP. The participation of other firms, costs and timeline for the proposals were not immediately disclosed. In October 2024 citizens approved the construction of the country’s first NPP since 1995 in a referendum called by the government, as Astana seeks to diversify energy sources amid ageing energy infrastructure and recurring power shortages. Astana’s move to select Russian and Chinese firms for the new NPP projects reflects its attempt to balance ties with Beijing and Moscow. Deepening energy ties with both countries are likely.
Click here to access Kazakhstan’s Global Intake profile.
Europe: EU to propose Russian gas phase-out plan amid opposition to formal ban
Sectors: all; energy
Key Risks: sanctions; economic risks
On 17 June the European Union (EU) will present its proposal for phasing out Russian energy imports by 2027. Brussels plans to ban new deals for Russian gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG), stopping imports under existing spot contracts by late 2025, and under long-term contracts by late 2027. These measures constitute ‘force majeure’, enabling firms to exit contracts but likely facing penalties and arbitration. Brussels will reportedly propose the ban – effective immediately – under EU trade law to circumvent any veto by Hungary and Slovakia, allowing it to pass with approval from a majority of member states. In a concession to Budapest and Bratislava, landlocked countries would reportedly be granted an exemption until 2027 to phase out existing gas contracts. However, importing countries remain concerned over legal risks. The proposal will face a heated debate and it remains unclear if it will pass without amendments.
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MENA: Israel strikes Iran to halt nuclear programme; Iran responds with counterstrikes
Sectors: all
Key risks: regional escalation; war on land; economic risks; business risks; economic risks; business risks
In Israel, on 16 June at least eight people were killed and dozens were injured in Iranian retaliatory strikes in Haifa province and in the centre of the country. Israel’s Oil Refineries reported damage to its pipelines and transmission lines in Haifa from Iranian missile strikes. A branch of the US Embassy in Tel Aviv sustained “minor damage”. More than 20 people were killed and 300 others were injured in Israel since it launched airstrikes on Iran on 13 June. Tel Aviv stated its attack was necessary to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons that would threaten its survival. On the other side, at least 224 Iranians – including 14 nuclear scientists and three top military leaders – were killed and 1,277 were injured in Israeli strikes since 13 June. Washington stated US involvement in the conflict is “possible”. Attacks are likely to persist in the short term.
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Sub-Saharan Africa: Deadline for Rwanda-DRC peace deal looms as negotiations drag on
Sectors: all
Key risks: war-on-land; insurgency; diplomacy; economic
In Rwanda, on 15 June Minister of Foreign Affairs Olivier Nduhungirehe stated that a peace deal with the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) would not be agreed by an initial 15 June deadline. This comes amid mounting pressure by the US to conclude discussion by early July, at the latest. Kigali has been accused of stalling proceedings, as both sides iron out requirements for a permanent cessation to hostilities in eastern DRC, centred on a respect of sovereignty and withdrawal of support for armed groups in the region. Tensions between the two sides have been heightened during the discussions but trade-led diplomacy by US and Qatari mediation has enabled progress. However, if the July target deadline is not achieved, the risk of a US withdrawal from negotiations could significantly impact the future of a peace deal.
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