Americas: Bomb attack suspends pumping on Colombia’s Cano Limo-Covenas pipeline
Sectors: all; oil
Key Risks: business disruptions; targeted attacks; supply chain disruption
In Colombia, on 13 July the Cano Limon-Covenas Oil Pipeline – carrying 210,000 barrels of oil per day along the northern border with Venezuela – was bombed by unidentified assailants in the rural area of Saravena, Arauca department. The attack prompted the suspension of pumping between oil fields in the northeast and the Caribbean coast. The pipeline operator Cenit, a subsidiary of majority-state-owned oil company Ecopetrol, stated it activated a contingency plan to control spills and environmental contamination. Although the attack was not attributed to any group, dissident former FARC rebels and National Liberation Army (ELN) rebels are known to operate in the area. This came after on 3 July the Bicentenario pipeline was suspended following an explosive attack in the rural area of Tame, Arauca department – marking its sixth such attack in 2025. Given recent frequency, further attacks cannot be ruled out.
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Asia Pacific: New Caledonia to become French state in proposed referendum
Sectors: all; mining
Key Risks: civil unrest; disruptive unrest; political violence
In New Caledonia, on 13 July officials signed the Bougival Accord, an agreement with France to propose a referendum upgrading Noumea’s political status to a state within the French Republic. While the deal would not signify full independence from Paris, it would expand New Caledonia’s autonomy by introducing its own legal identity, dual nationality opportunity and expanded diplomatic abilities. The agreement followed civil unrest throughout the country in May 2024, during which indigenous Kanak communities denounced proposed reforms to allow French residents to vote in New Caledonian elections, greatly hampering local independence movements. The Accord would also implement financial aid packages for the nickel mining industry, which was largely shut down after being targeted by protesters during the demonstrations. Renewed unrest cannot be ruled out in the event of the bill being rejected in France’s parliament, scheduled to convene in Q4 2025.
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Eurasia: US President Trump to announce new plan to arm Ukraine
Sectors: all
Key Risks: war on land
On 14 July US President Donald Trump is set to officially announce a new plan to arm Ukraine that is expected to include offensive weapons, according to news website Axios. If confirmed, this would be a major shift in Trump’s policy towards Ukraine and an indication of his growing frustration with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Axios cited two anonymous sources who claimed that the package could include long-range weapons that could reach targets deep in Russia, but neither of them was aware of the final decision. Trump stated on 13 July that the new package would include “various pieces of sophisticated equipment, including Patriot missiles”. He also added that the US would be reimbursed by the EU. Trump’s change of policy could raise tensions with Moscow as the Kremlin appears unwilling to move forward in the peace process.
Click here to access Ukraine’s Global Intake country profile.
Europe: Slovakia increasingly likely to lift veto on EU’s 18th sanctions package on Russia
Sectors: all
Key Risks: Sanctions; business risks; economic risks
In Slovakia, on 12 July Bratislava signalled it aims to reach a deal by 15 July with the EU to receive legal guarantees should Moscow’s Gazprom claim a potential breach of contract on a long-term gas import deal that expires in 2034. On 23 June Slovakia vetoed the EU’s 18th sanctions package against Moscow in a bid to receive legal guarantees. Bratislava blocked the measure over a separate EU roadmap to phase out Russian energy imports by 2027, banning gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) under existing spot contracts by 17 June 2026 and under long-term contracts by end-2027. These measures would constitute “force majeure,” enabling firms to exit contracts but likely facing penalties and arbitration. Bratislava will likely lift its veto in the coming days upon receiving EU assurances.
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MENA: At least 30 killed as intercommunal clashes renew in Syria’s al-Suwayda’ province
Sectors: all
Key risks: communal violence; violent clashes; governability
In Syria, on 13 July at least 30 people – including six members of the security forces – were killed and over 100 were injured in clashes between Druze and Bedouin factions in al-Suwayda’, al-Suwayda’ province. The clashes erupted following a series of kidnappings between the two groups, with a young Druze merchant kidnapped on the al-Suwayda’-Damascus highway on 11 July. On 14 July Israel Defense Forces (IDF) targeted and struck military tanks in the south of the country. On 2 May IDF strikes hit near the presidential palace in Damascus following intense clashes between pro-government militants and Druze residents between 29 April and 2 May. Renewed sectarian violence is likely amid persistent local rivalries and limited government control. IDF strikes – framed as measures to protect the Druze community – are also likely.
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Sub-Saharan Africa: Ghana’s NDC party secures super-majority in parliament
Sectors: all
Key risks: governance; political stability
In Ghana, on 11 July the ruling National Democratic Congress (NDC) party marginally won the Ablekuma North constituency by-election in Accra. It also marked the first time a government has held a two-thirds majority in parliament since 1992, enabling the passage of legislation unopposed. The re-run was forced following a contested vote in the December 2024 elections, in which the opposition New Patriotic Party (NPP) victory was overturned. NDC’s parliamentary super-majority will accelerate President John Mahama’s continued economic overhaul centred on balancing the budget and stimulating growth in key industries. Despite greater political backing, the victory will not boost Maham’s constitutional reform agenda – targeting judicial independence and decentralisation – which will be subject to referendums.
Click here to access Ghana’s Global Intake profile.
