Americas: Surging violence raises concerns in Ecuador after eight killed, three injured in attack
Sectors: all
Key Risks: gang violence; violent clashes; targeted attacks
In Ecuador, on 10 August eight people were killed and three others were injured in a shooting attack by armed assailants at a nightclub in Santa Lucia, Guayas province. This came after on 8 August four people were killed, with dozens remaining missing, after at least 60 armed assailants attacked a boat off the southwestern coast near El Oro province. On 7 August President Daniel Noboa declared a 60-day state of emergency in Guayas, El Oro, Los Rios and Manabi provinces over escalating violence amid an intensifying dispute between Los Choneros and Los Lobos over control of key drug-trafficking routes in the Pacific region. Los Lobos has sought to expand its territorial presence by capitalising on Los Choneros’s leadership vacuum after the 20 July extradition of its leader, Jose Adolfo Macias alias ‘Fito’, to the US. The risk of violence will remain high.
Click here to access Ecuador’s Global Intake country profile.
Asia Pacific: Bangladesh to hold elections in February 2026
Sectors: all
Key Risks: disruptive unrest; political polarisation; violent clashes; governability
In Bangladesh, on 5 August the interim government declared that it would hold a general election in February 2026, although it did not specify an exact date. The announcement was made during an anniversary event marking one year since student groups ousted former prime minister Sheikh Hasina and the Awami League party from power. Interim Prime Minister Muhammad Yunus confirmed that he would not run for re-election and would step down from office once a new leader was inaugurated. However, inter- and intra-party clashes – particularly between supporters of the New Citizens’ Party, Bangladesh Nationalist Party and the now-banned Awami League – are likely to continue. Major parliamentary gains are also expected to be secured by the Islamist Jamaat-e-Islami party. The election is expected to take place before 17 February prior to the Ramadan festive period.
Click here to access Bangladesh’s Global Intake country profile.
Eurasia: US President Trump to meet Russian President Putin on 15 August for Ukraine war talks
Sectors: all
Key Risks: war-on-land
On 8 August US President Donald Trump confirmed he would hold a summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin on 15 August in Alaska to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine and suggested that an eventual peace deal would involve territorial exchanges between Russia and Ukraine. The summit will come after Trump threatened secondary sanctions against Russia’s trading partners if Moscow did not make progress in peace talks. Trump proposed a second summit – yet to be confirmed – with Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Kyiv objected to ceding any of its territory to Moscow and being left out of the summit, while European leaders issued a joint statement expressing support for Ukraine’s territorial integrity and urging Trump to sanction Russia. The summit will enable Putin to diffuse recent tensions with the US and keep Trump engaged in talks while prolonging fighting in Ukraine.
Click here to access Russia’s and here to access Ukraine’s Global Intake country profile.
Europe: Constitutional Court in Kosovo gives MPs 30 days to select speaker; changes rules
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stability; governability; governance; political impasse; political polarisation; political uncertainty; government instability
In Kosovo, on 8 August the Constitutional Court gave MPs another 30 days to elect a parliament speaker in an attempt to break the political deadlock following the February parliamentary elections. The Court also ruled that no candidate can be nominated more than three times, addressing the core of the crisis, with the ruling Vetevendosje party (VV) refusing to propose a different candidate despite 54 unsuccessful sessions. VV criticised the ruling, calling it unfair and “not based on the Constitution,” while the opposition praised it, calling it “a big win for democracy”. The ruling has increased the chances of a resolution, forcing VV to nominate a different candidate. However, the crisis has increased antagonism between VV and the opposition, lowering chances that the VV – which lost a majority in the February vote – will be able to form a government.
Click here to access Kosovo’s Global Intake country profile.
MENA: Israel approves full military control of Gaza amid domestic backlash
Sectors: all
Key risks: war on land; civil unrest; disruptive unrest; governability
In Gaza and the West Bank, on 10 August at least five civilians and six Al Jazeera journalists were killed in Israel Defense Forces (IDF) airstrikes in Gaza city. Tel Aviv alleged the journalists were part of Hamas. This came after on 8 August Israel approved a plan for full military control of the Gaza Strip, of which it already holds about 75 per cent. The new offensive would target two remaining Hamas strongholds and establish a security belt along the border. Although the plan is widely opposed inside Israel, a new IDF offensive is expected soon in central Gaza. The timing remains unclear, as Israel will need to mobilise its forces and is expected to order another mass evacuation. The UN warned that the operation risks “another calamity” in Gaza, where famine is unfolding. The campaign is also likely to intensify civil unrest and deepen political divisions within Israel.
Click here to access Gaza and the West Bank’s and here to access Israel’s Global Intake country profile.
Sub-Saharan Africa: Barring of opposition candidates sparks protest in Ivory Coast
Sectors: all
Key risks: political stability; civil unrest; political polarisation
In Ivory Coast, on 9 August thousands of civilians took to the streets in Yopougon, Abidjan district, to protest the barring of opposition figures Tidjiane Thiam and former president Laurent Gbagbo from the 25 October elections. Protests were led by Thiam’s Democratic Party of Ivory Coast (PDCI) and Gbagbo’s African People’s Party (PPA), collectively known as the Common Front. Protests increased since the decision to declare Thiam and Gbagbo ineligible in the October elections on 4 June. Police responses to protests have intensified since July, with 11 people arrested and an unknown number injured after police cracked down on protests in the capital on 1 August. Opposition calls to unify intensified after President Alassane Ouattara announced his candidacy for a fourth term on 29 July. Further protests are likely ahead of the election, raising civil unrest risks.
Click here to access Ivory Coast’s Global Intake country profile.
