Americas: Centrist senator Paz leads presidential election, ending left-wing dominance in Bolivia
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stability; political uncertainty; governance; policy uncertainty
In Bolivia, on 17 August early official results showed centrist senator Rodrigo Paz of the Christian Democratic Party leading the presidential election with 32.8 per cent. Conservative former president Jorge ‘Tuto’ Quiroga of the Alianza coalition followed with 26.4 per cent, while ruling Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) candidate Eduardo del Castillo trailed with 3.2 per cent. Businessman Samuel Doria Medina conceded and pledged to back Paz in a potential runoff, after pre-election polls had placed him and Quiroga ahead of Paz. Despite boycott calls from former president Evo Morales and fears of disruption, international observers reported no major issues, aside from minor incidents in Morales’ stronghold, Cochabamba department. The result ends over two decades of left-wing dominance but also reflects voter caution about a sharp shift to the right. Final results are due within seven days, with a 19 October runoff between Paz and Quiroga highly likely.
Click here to access Bolivia’s Global Intake country profile.
Asia Pacific: Thailand’s Constitutional Court to issue verdict on suspended PM on 29 August
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political instability; disruptive unrest; coup d’etat
In Thailand, on 13 August the country’s Constitutional Court announced that it would issue its verdict on suspended Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s ethics case on 29 August. The ethics case covers Paetongtarn’s leaked 15 June phone call with former Cambodian prime minister Hun Sen, in which Paetongtarn dismissed a Thai general and referred to Hun as “uncle”. The Bhumjaithai Party quickly withdrew from the Pheu Thai-led coalition, leaving it with a majority of only 10 seats. The Court’s ruling will come only one week after a royal defamation case against Thaksin Shinawatra – Paetongtarn’s father – on 22 August. As the Shinawatra family is a dynasty broadly viewed as progressive and anti-monarchy, pro-democracy groups are likely to protest nationwide if the family’s influence is removed from politics, with a military takeover of government likely if the situation rapidly deteriorates.
Click here to access Thailand’s Global Intake country profile.
Eurasia: US President Trump to meet Ukraine’s Zelensky after summit with Russia’s Putin
Sectors: all
Key Risks: war-on-land
On 18 August US President Donald Trump will meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Zelensky’s first visit to the White House since their disastrous exchange in February. European leaders will also meet Trump following his talks with Zelensky, seeking to bolster their support for Kyiv. This came after on 15 August Trump’s summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska ended with no major breakthroughs announced. However, Trump and Putin suggested they had agreed on key issues in peace talks, although some disagreements remained. Trump called on Ukraine to reach a full peace deal before a ceasefire is implemented – a key Russian demand that Kyiv opposes. US officials also signalled that Moscow was open to US security guarantees for Kyiv outside of NATO, although an agreement on this has yet to be reached. Trump will now likely intensify pressure on Kyiv to concede to Putin’s demands.
Click here to access Russia’s and here to access Ukraine’s Global Intake country profile.
Europe: Violent protests likely to escalate in Serbia as Vucic vows “tough measures”
Sectors: all
Key Risks: civil unrest; political stability
In Serbia, on 18 August President Alexandar Vucic vowed tough measures against anti-government protesters following five nights of violent demonstrations in major cities across the country. Vucic has repeatedly accused protesters of plotting to overthrow his government on behalf of foreign powers – a narrative echoed in Moscow where Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov accused the West of backing another “colour revolution”. None of the two men provided any evidence for the claim. Conversely, protesters accuse the police – and its supporters – of using extensive violence, with the secretary general of the Council of Europe calling on Serbian authorities to respect the right of peaceful assembly. Vucic did not specify what tough measures he intended to deploy but stated that the government would use “everything at their disposal to restore peace and order”. Vucic’s statements indicate that further violence is likely with an increased potential for further escalation.
Click here to access Serbia’s Global Intake country profile.
MENA: Municipal elections in Libya face disruptions as seven municipalities postpone voting
Sectors: all
Key risks: political impasse; political violence; disruptive unrest; targeted attacks
In Libya, on 16 August municipal elections proceeded in 50 cities, including Tripoli, with hundreds of thousands participating. However, the High National Elections Commission (HNEC) postponed voting in seven municipalities until 23 August after polling stations were targeted by arson and armed attacks. Officials condemned the disruptions as unacceptable, highlighting the fragility of security conditions in the country. The vote took place against the backdrop of enduring rivalries between Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh’s Tripoli-based Government of National Unity (GNU) and Khalifa Haftar’s eastern administration. Further disruptions, delays and violence remain likely as inter-and intra-faction tensions persist. Repeated delays could further erode confidence in the country’s already fragmented political process. The instability also dims prospects for long-delayed national elections, with municipal disruptions signalling the challenges of reaching consensus on a unified framework for a country-wide vote.
Click here to access Libya’s Global Intake country profile.
Sub-Saharan Africa: 60 bandits killed as military intensifies operations in northwestern Nigeria
Sectors: all
Key risks: communal violence; gang violence; violent clashes
In Nigeria, on 12 August between 60 and 100 bandits were killed in air and ground operations by the military in Makakkari forest, which spans Akun and Bukuyum Local Government Areas (LGA), Zamfara state. The military reported that around 400 bandits had gathered in the area. Anti-bandit missions under Operation Fansan Yamma stepped up in 2025, with roughly 60 bandits killed by the military in Asola, Zamfara state, on 5 August. Pressure from Operation Fansan Yamma is increasingly impacting the northwest of the country, with clashes intensifying in the northwestern states. Multiple bandit leaders are reportedly engaged in negotiations with local authorities to end hostilities against local communities, including Bello Turji, one of the most notorious bandit leaders in the country. Despite negotiations and military pressure, bandit activity is likely to persist for the foreseeable future.
Click here to access Nigeria’s Global Intake country profile.
