Americas: At least 23 arrested, several injured in nationwide transportation sector strike in Peru
Sectors: all; transport sector
Key Risks: civil unrest; traffic disruption
In Peru, on 11 October at least 23 people were arrested and several others were injured in the transportation sector strike in Lima, Lima region, and Callao, Callao region. Protesters demanded greater government measures against insecurity and the repeal of the “urban terrorism” law, which demonstrators claimed aims to penalise protesters. This came amid a scheduled congressional debate on the law’s amendment to potentially impose stricter punitive measures against protesters that block roads and a surge in organised crime in the country despite a state of emergency declared on 1 October in 14 districts of Lima and Callao. The strike – called on 10 October – also took place in Chiclayo, Lambayeque region, Huancayo, Junin region, and Arequipa, Arequipa region. Significant traffic disruption is expected, and the risk of strikes with the potential to turn violent will remain heightened.
Click here to access Peru’s Global Intake country profile.
Asia Pacific: North Korea accuses South Korean military of flying drones over Pyongyang
Sectors: all
Key Risks: accidental conflict; regional escalation; regional conflict
In North Korea, on 13 October leading government officials denounced South Korea for allegedly flying unmanned drones over Pyongyang. The drones, which dropped leaflets containing information critical of the North Korean government, flew over Pyongyang on 11 October. This came after several months of rubbish-filled balloons from North Korea entering South Korean airspace, causing significant issues such as airport delays and even a rooftop fire in Seoul. Kim Yo-jong, the highly influential sister of Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un, blamed the US for its perceived role in the drone flights, stating that the “responsibility for the actions of dogs lies with their master”. While a direct military response is unlikely, it appears that North Korea is preparing for the imminent destruction of roads crossing over the border. Further escalation cannot be ruled out.
Click here to access North Korea’s Global Intake country profile.
Eurasia: Moldova to hold presidential election, referendum on EU membership on 20 October
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stability; civil unrest
In Moldova, on 20 October citizens will head to the polls to elect a new president and vote on the country’s potential EU membership. 11 candidates are running for the presidency, with current President Maia Sandu leading the polls, holding around 35 per cent of the vote. Her main competitor, Alexandr Stoianoglo from the pro-Russian Party of Socialists, is projected to win around 10 per cent. While polls indicate that over 60 per cent of voters will support the goal of joining the EU, the number highlights significant societal divisions. Moscow has long exploited these divisions to undermine Sandu’s pro-Western government but has recently intensified these efforts, particularly through the pro-Russian Shor Party, allegedly being involved in vote-buying schemes and other election interference. Sandu is unlikely to secure the over 50 per cent required to avoid a second round, scheduled for 3 November.
Click here to access Moldova’s Global Intake profile.
Europe: Norway raises security level following reported attacks in Sweden, Denmark
Sectors: all
Key Risks: extremist attacks;
In Norway, on 12 October the government introduced temporary border checks until 22 October after the Police Security Service (PST) raised the country’s terror alert to its second-highest level. PST stated there was a particularly high threat to Jewish and Israeli institutions. This came after on 2 October Denmark’s police arrested three Swedish nationals in connection with two blasts near the Israeli Embassy in Copenhagen, while Sweden’s police confirmed they were investigating a potential shooting at the Israeli Embassy in Stockholm on 1 October. On 10 October a teenage suspect was arrested by Swedish police in connection with a shooting near a unit of Israeli defence electronics firm Elbit Systems in Gothenburg. No casualties were reported in either of the three attacks. Further security measures are likely as authorities attempt to counter a rising threat of extremist attacks amid tensions over the Israel-Gaza war.
Click here to access Norway’s and here to access Sweden’s Global Intake country profiles.
MENA: Two UNIFIL soldiers injured in Israeli strike on their HQ in southern Lebanon
Sectors: all
Key risks: regional escalation; war
In Lebanon, on 11 October two United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) soldiers were injured in an Israel Defense Forces (IDF) strike near a watchtower in the UNIFIL headquarters at Ras al-Naqoura, Tyre district. IDF officials stated that their forces targeted an “immediate threat” 50 m from the UNIFIL base, and had warned peacekeepers to seek shelter in advance. Tel Aviv called for UNIFIL forces to withdraw from the area, accusing them of serving as “human shields” for Hizbullah. On 10 October two UNIFIL soldiers were injured by IDF tanks for the first time. On 9 October IDF soldiers disabled monitoring cameras and attacked the area where tripartite meetings were held. The UN mission has been in the country since 2006, working to restore stability under the mandate of UNSCR 1701. Further such incidents cannot be ruled out.
Click here to access Lebanon’s and here to access Israel’s Global Intake country profile.
Sub-Saharan Africa: New Eritrea-Somalia-Egypt axis raises questions over regional security
Sectors: all
Key risks: regional tensions, regional conflict,
In Eritrea, on 10 October an agreement was signed to boost security cooperation on land and sea and form a strategic alliance between representatives from Eritrea, Somalia and Egypt. The stated motive behind the initiative is to tackle terrorism in Somalia and to address maritime security. The agreement looks to counter Ethiopian threats of acquiring sea access one way or another, with both Asmara and Mogadishu expressing major concerns over perceived Ethiopian aggression. Cairo’s involvement in the new African Union (AU) security mission in Somalia has led to increasing controversy among other participants in the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS). Uganda expressed opposition to Egypt’s interference in the region’s security and politics and raised questions about Kampala’s role in future AU missions. The new Asmara-Mogadishu-Cairo alliance will shift regional politics and will likely drastically raise tensions between Ethiopia and its neighbours.
Click here to access Eritrea’s and here to access Somalia’s Global Intake profile.
