Americas: Haiti’s transitional presidential council to replace PM Conille amid security crisis
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political instability; governability
In Haiti, on 10 November the transitional presidential council drafted a resolution – to be released in the official gazette on 11 November – to replace Prime Minister Garry Conille with former senate candidate Alix Didier Fils-Aime. Conille – appointed by the transitional council on 28 May – stated the resolution was “outside any legal and constitutional framework”, as the council does not have powers to dismiss a prime minister. The council was installed on 25 April to exercise presidential powers and elect a new prime minister to stabilise the country and hold new elections by February 2026 after former prime minister Ariel Henry resigned amid a security crisis. This came amid Conille’s efforts to secure foreign assistance to help the country fight gangs that have expanded their control beyond the capital Port-au-Prince. Political instability and governability risks remain extremely high.
Click here to access Haiti’s Global Intake country profile.
Asia Pacific: China formally rejects Philippines’ maritime security laws
Sectors: all
Key Risks: regional escalation; war-at-sea
In China, on 10 November government officials formally rejected the Maritime Zones Act and Archipelagic Sea Lanes Act signed into law by Filipino President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. on 8 November. The laws definitively outline the maritime boundaries of the Philippines, where some areas conflict with China’s vast claims in the South China Sea. Beijing, which asserts that Manila is aggressively and illegally fishing in the area, has stated that the laws “severely infringe” upon China’s maritime sovereignty in the region. China’s Foreign Ministry has vowed to “take all necessary measures in accordance with the law to resolutely defend China’s territorial sovereignty, maritime rights and interests”, without specifying exact details. Continued escalation in the South China Sea cannot be ruled out as Beijing seeks to assert its vast claims, while the Philippines seeks to justify and enforce its newly implemented laws.
Click here to access China’s and here to access The Philippines’ Global Intake country profiles.
Eurasia: Trump to likely to seek swift end of war in Ukraine following his re-election in US
Sectors: all
Key Risks: war-on-land
In the United States (US), on 10 November reports emerged that the US President-elect Donald Trump held a telephone conversation with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin on 7 November – two days after his re-election on 5 November. During the call, Trump reportedly urged Putin not to escalate the war in Ukraine, warning him of the US presence in Europe. He also reportedly expressed an interest in a follow-up discussion to discuss the resolution of the war in Ukraine soon. However, on 11 November Kremlin denied that the two held a conversation, claiming that the information was “pure fiction”. The Trump office stated that they would not comment on Trump’s private telephone conversations. Trump is likely to launch intense efforts to reach a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine to deliver on his ambitious campaign promise to end the war swiftly.
Click here to access Ukraine’s and here to access Russia’s Global Intake profile.
Europe: France to boost security for game with Israel after antisemitic riots in Netherlands
Sectors: all
Key Risks: civil unrest; violent protests; hate-motivated attacks
In France, on 10 November police stated that 4,000 police officers and 1,600 stadium staff would be deployed to ensure security at a 14 November France-Israel UEFA football match in Paris. French President Emmanuel Macron stated he would attend the game to show solidarity following the outbreak of violence in the Netherlands. On 8 November at least 10 people were injured and 57 others detained when Israeli football fans clashed with pro-Palestinian protesters in Amsterdam. European leaders condemned the violence while Israel ordered a rescue mission following the clashes. On 10 November 50 people were arrested and 340 others were physically removed as Dutch police dispersed a pro-Palestinian protest after authorities banned such rallies until 14 November in Amsterdam. Violent incidents targeting Israeli nationals have increased across Europe amid tensions over the Israel-Gaza war. Further such incidents cannot be ruled out.
Click here to access France’s and here to access the Netherlands’ Global Intake country profiles.
MENA: Qatar suspends mediation role in Israel-Hamas negotiations
Sectors: all
Key risks: regional war; diplomacy
In Qatar, on 9 November officials suspended Doha’s role as mediator in ceasefire and hostage release talks between Israel and Hamas, stating it would rejoin when both parties “show their willingness and seriousness” to negotiate. The Foreign Ministry stated that Doha informed the parties that it would suspend its mediation efforts if no agreement was reached during the latest negotiation attempts in mid-October. It denied reports claiming that the US pressured Doha to remove Hamas representatives from the country. Doha temporarily closed down Hamas’s political office – established in 2012 – until talks between the warring parties resume. Speculations suggest Ankara as a likely location for new Hamas offices. As the warring parties fail to display political will to negotiate and the war drags on in Gaza and Lebanon, achieving a ceasefire appears more challenging than ever.
Click here to access Qatar’s Global Intake profile.
Sub-Saharan Africa: Long-delayed presidential elections set to take place in Somaliland
Sectors: all
Key risks: political continuity; political stability; civil unrest
In Somalia, on 13 November general elections are set to take place in the self-declared republic of Somaliland, two years after they were delayed by the House of Elders due to financial and technical issues. Additionally, concerns emerged that clashes between state security forces and clan militias in Las Anod, Sool region, since February 2023 impacted Hargeisa’s ability to hold elections in those areas. Mogadishu will place particular attention on the elections as the result may impact the 1 January Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between Hargeisa and Addis Ababa and Mogadishu’s role in the Las Anod conflict. The May 2021 legislative elections saw the ruling Kulmiye party lose their majority and it operating as a minority government for the past three years. Bihi is projected to win the presidential election but his Kulmiye party are unlikely to gain a legislative majority.
Click here to access Somalia’s Global Intake profile
