Americas: Mexico’s unionised education workers set to march in Mexico City, strike nationwide
Sectors: all
Key Risks: traffic disruption; civil unrest
In Mexico, on 9 December the National Coordinating Committee of Education Workers (CNTE) is set to mobilise a mass march in the capital Mexico City and a nationwide strike at more than 5,300 public primary schools – leaving more than two million students without classes. The CNTE stated that the mobilisation would continue until their pending demands are met by President Claudia Sheinbaum’s administration. On 30 October the CNTE presented its demands to Sheinbaum, with the second meeting scheduled for 9 December. The demands include the repeal of the educational reform and the Law of the Institute of Social Security and Services for State Workers of 2007, salary increases and the democratisation of the National Union of Education Workers. Traffic disruption is expected in the main arteries of Mexico City and the risk of the protest turning violent will be heightened.
Click here to access Mexico’s Global Intake country profile.
Asia Pacific: Alert level raised by Taiwan as start of Chinese war games imminent
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political instability; regional escalation; war at sea
In Taiwan, on 9 December the alert level was raised after 90 navy and coast guard ships were reported near Taiwan, the southern Japanese Islands and the East and South China Seas, signalling anticipated war games. Beijing also set up seven “temporary reserved areas” to the east of Fujian and Zhejiang from 9 to 11 December, giving Beijing temporarily reserved airspace access. Other flights may pass through but must request air traffic permission. The deployment is reportedly larger than “Joint Sword 2024-A and B” that occurred earlier this year, and came in response to Taiwanese President Ching-Te’s 1-5 December Pacific trip, strongly condemned by Beijing. This is the first time Beijing is targeting the entire island chain running from Japan to Borneo. Continued escalation cannot be ruled out as Taiwan’s military has activated “combat readiness exercises” at strategic locations and closely monitors Chinese naval activity.
Click here to access Taiwan’s Global Intake country profile.
Eurasia: Daily anti-government protests continue in Georgia as authorities intensify crackdown
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stability; civil unrest
In Georgia, on 8 December anti-government protests continued for the tenth consecutive night as the government intensified its crackdown on opposition activists. On 4 December at least seven opposition members were detained after authorities raided several offices of opposition parties, accusing them of inciting violence. A leader of the largest opposition party Coalition for Change, Nika Gvaramia, was detained after being beaten unconscious by police. Protests over the disputed 26 October election results – triggered by claims of election fraud – escalated after on 28 November the ruling Georgian Dream (GD) party suspended Tbilisi’s EU accession talks, with dozens injured and hundreds detained since 28 November. Separately, on 9 December the UK announced a halt to its aid and cooperation with Tbilisi over the crackdown on protesters, as Tbilisi’s Western partners intensified their condemnation of the government’s actions. Further unrest is likely as the political crisis deepens.
Click here to access Georgia’s Global Intake profile.
Europe: Political stability and civil unrest risks heightened in Romania after election annulment
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stability; civil unrest; foreign interference
In Romania, on 8 December hundreds of supporters of presidential candidate Calin Georgescu in Bucharest to protest the 6 December ruling of the Constitutional Court to annul the results of the 24 November presidential election. Georgescu – who unexpectedly won the vote on the social media platform TikTok – called the ruling a “coup” and an attack on democracy. Separately, on 8 December the police detained the former head of Romanian mercenaries in Congo, Horatiu Potra, after searching his and associates’ vehicles on their way to Bucharest and finding guns, machetes, axes and knives. Authorities claimed that these could have been used to “disrupt public order and peace,” while local media reported that the group was planning to disrupt anti-Georgescu protests in the capital and an “intimidation operation” against a list of politicians and journalists. The political stability and civil unrest risks will remain heightened ahead of the new vote.
Click here to access Romania’s Global Intake country profiles.
MENA: Al-Assad’s rule collapses in Syria as HTS-led opposition forces seize control of Damascus
Sectors: all
Key risks: regime change; regional escalation; internal conflict
In Syria, on 8 December President Bashar al-Assad fled to Moscow as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), Free Syrian Army and allied rebel forces seized Damascus without resistance from government troops, bringing an end to the al-Assad family’s 53-year rule. Fighters released detainees from Sednaya Prison, a major facility north of Damascus, and imposed a citywide curfew from 16:00 to 5:00 local time. HTS leader Abu Mohamed al-Julani proclaimed the “start of a new era,” stating that official institutions in Damascus would remain under Prime Minister Mohammed al-Jalali’s control until a formal transition. Since a surprise offensive in Aleppo on 27 November, opposition forces have gained control of much of the west of the country, extending from Aleppo to Dara’a provinces. The formation of a transitional government could be hindered by infighting among opposition factions.
Click here to access Syria’s Global Intake profile.
Sub-Saharan Africa: Somali and Jubaland forces in stand-off as internal tensions rise
Sectors: all
Key risks: internal conflict; political stability; regional escalation
In Somalia, on 6 December reports emerged of clashes between elite Turkish-trained GorGor forces and Jubaland forces in Raskamboni, Lower Juba region. Although no casualties were reported, both sides have increasingly reinforced positions near the town, with reports of jamming equipment being deployed and access via air and road being blockaded. Additionally, efforts by Ethiopia to boost its troop presence in the Lower Juba region were rebuffed and heavily criticised by Mogadishu. As a key security partner for Somalia, Jubaland forces have been important in government gains made in the south in 2024. Political infighting between the two sides has also led to a spike in al-Shabaab attacks in the Lower Juba region. As the militant group will capitalise on internal tensions, further attacks on military targets are likely. Concurrently, close ties between Kenya, Ethiopia and Jubaland will increase the potential for regional escalation if clashes intensify.
Click here to access Somalia’s Global Intake profile
