Americas: Protests against pension reform ahead of National Assembly debate in Panama
Sectors: all
Key Risks: traffic disruption; civil unrest; vandalism
In Panama, on 17 December labour unions and the National Construction Workers’ Union (SUNTRACS) are likely to stage protests and road blocks against the proposed pension reform bill in the capital Panama City. SUNTRACS called for protests against the bill – proposed by Jose Raul Mulino’s government on 6 November – to reform Law 51 of 2005 of the Social Security Fund. The proposed bill seeks to increase the retirement age by three years, increase employers’ contributions by 3 per cent and eliminate the mixed pension system to form a single fund. The National Assembly is set to begin the first out of a series of three debates on the proposed bill on 17 December. With turnout likely to be in the hundreds, severe traffic disruption is expected. While the risk is low, protests involving anti-government vandalism cannot be entirely ruled out.
Click here to access Panama’s Global Intake country profile.
Asia Pacific: South Korea’s President Yoon Suk-yeol impeached
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stability; political polarisation
In South Korea, on 14 December President Yoon Suk-yeol’s impeachment vote has cast uncertainty over the country’s future leadership, with Prime Minister Han Duck-soo temporarily stepping in as acting president. The impeachment vote followed Yoon’s 3 December declaration of martial law, which he stated was necessary to “protect the country and its government from pro-North Korean, anti-state forces”. As a result of the impeachment, Yoon has been prohibited from carrying out any constitutional duties while the Constitutional Court of Korea carries out a review of the impeachment vote. The Court has 180 days to publish a ruling on the impeachment vote that would remove Yoon from office, after which a national election must be held within 60 days. The risk of political stability will remain elevated as the country addresses the crisis and is highly likely to replace its leadership.
Click here to access South Korea’s Global Intake country profile.
Eurasia: Georgia’s political crisis to deepen as GD elects Western critic as president
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stability; civil unrest; polarisation; geopolitical tensions
In Georgia, on 14 December lawmakers and local government representatives elected the ruling Georgian Dream (GD) party’s candidate Mikheil Kavelashvili as president, with 224 of 225 electors present voting in favour of the only proposed candidate. Kavelashvili – a former soccer player – has accused Tbilisi’s Western partners of trying to drag Tbilisi into a war with Russia. Hundreds of activists protested the vote, which came amid intensifying protests over the disputed 26 October general election results and GD’s halt of EU accession talks. Opposition leader President Salome Zourabichvili refuses to step down after her mandate ends on 16 December as she considers parliament “illegitimate”. Separately, on 16 December Hungary and Slovakia blocked proposed EU sanctions on Tbilisi over the government’s crackdown on opposition protesters. A separate EU plan to suspend visa liberalisation for GD officials will likely be adopted. The political crisis will deepen.
Click here to access Georgia’s Global Intake profile.
Europe: Macron appoints centrist Francois Bayrou as France’s prime minister
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political instability; polarisation: political deadlock
In France, on 13 December President Emmanuel Macron appointed his close ally, centrist Francois Bayrou as prime minister. The left-wing Socialist Party (PS) stated they would not join Bayrou’s coalition and condemned Macron’s pick, which ignored their demands for a left-wing candidate despite holding talks with Macron on 10 December. The centre-right Republicans (LR) stated they would await Bayrou’s proposals before deciding whether to back him. This came after on 4 December former prime minister Michel Barnier was ousted in a no-confidence motion by the far-right National Rally (RN) and left-wing parties over a divisive EUR60bln budget of spending cuts and tax hikes for 2025. On 16 December Bayrou met with RN’s Marine le Pen – who signalled she was “more positive” after the talks – and will meet PS and LR officials in the coming days in a bid to form a government. Political instability will remain high.
Click here to access France’s Global Intake country profile.
MENA: Israel to double settler population in occupied Golan Heights amid Syrian regime collapse
Sectors: all
Key risks: territorial annexation; regional escalation; inter-state war
In Israel, on 15 December PM Benjamin Netanyahu announced a US$11m plan to extend settlements in the occupied Golan Heights, citing security threats despite the moderate stance of rebel leaders who ousted Syria’s former president Bashar al-Assad on 8 December. Israel seeks to double the settler population in the territory it illegally annexed in 1981, prompting international criticism. Germany, Israel’s second-most important ally, urged Netanyahu to abandon the plan, clarifying that Syria’s territorial integrity must not be questioned. The US remains the only country recognising Israeli authority over the territory. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) leader Ahmed al-Sharaa – widely known under his nom de guerre Abu Mohammed al-Julani – accused Israel of using false pretexts but stated he would prioritise reconstruction over escalation. Tensions will likely remain high, also given the ongoing Israeli ground and air campaign in the country.
Click here to access Israel’s and here for Syria’s Global Intake profiles.
Sub-Saharan Africa: DRC-Rwandan peace talks falter amid rebel vows for continued resistance
Sectors: all
Key risks: internal conflict; regional escalation; political instability
In Angola, on 14 December mediated ceasefire talks between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda failed to take place following diverging views over direct negotiations with the Congo River Alliance – including the March 23 Movement (M23). The initial ministerial meetings failed to reach an agreement, with the presidential meeting being cancelled following Rwandan President Paul Kagame’s no-show. Rwanda’s continued support for M23 remains a major sticking point in negotiations, an issue exacerbated by the number of clashes between the Congolese military and M23 rebels near Lubero-central, North Kivu province between 2 and 9 December. Sensing no room at the negotiation table, the Congo River Alliance’s vow for continued resistance until Kinshasa falls will likely lead to escalations in the North Kivu conflict. The increased likelihood of growing violence will call into question whether the Luanda Process is capable of securing a long-term ceasefire, which will undermine future ceasefire talks.
Click here to access the Democratic Republic of Congo’s and here for Rwanda’s Global Intake profiles.
