Americas: Thousands of teachers march to demand new labour agreement in Guatemala
Sectors: all; transport
Key Risks: industrial action; cargo transport
In Guatemala, on 10 April thousands of teachers led by the Guatemalan Education Workers Union (STEG) demonstrated in the capital Guatemala City to demand a new labour agreement. The STEG stated that the Education Ministry was responsible for stalled negotiations – which began in January 2024 – aimed at reaching a new collective agreement, by not responding to demands for salary increases, higher school budgets and action against rising prices. The Ministry denounced the accusation as disinformation. The protest came after on 9 April the Ministry reported that a court granted the government a provisional injunction, ordering the STEG to refrain from blocking streets, occupying schools and suspending classes. The STEG called for a mobilisation of workers across all sectors in response. The risk of further protests, with the potential to cause significant transport disruption, will remain heightened in the short to medium term.
Click here to access Guatemala’s Global Intake country profile.
Asia Pacific: Philippines National Police vow to crack down on kidnap-for-ransom activity
Sectors: all
Key Risks: kidnapping; gang violence; violent clashes
In the Philippines, on 11 April police officials vowed to combat kidnap-for-ransom trends predominantly targeting foreign, particularly Chinese, nationals. The announcement came after Elison Steel CEO Anson Que and his driver were kidnapped by unidentified assailants on 29 March in Bulacan province, before being killed and discovered in Macabud, Rizal province, on 9 April. Reports indicated that a ransom demand of around PHP100m (US$1.75m) was paid by the family, but an exact amount was not disclosed. Police denied claims of “lawlessness” in the country, stating that it remained “safe for both business and travel”. Since making the declaration, 110 individuals related to illegal scam centres in Makati and Quezon City that often target Chinese nationals have been arrested by the police, indicating that increased security crackdowns on gang and kidnap-related activity are likely in the short term.
Click here to access the Philippines’ Global Intake country profile
Eurasia: Russia and Ukraine unlikely to reach ceasefire by Easter as Trump’s frustration grows
Sectors: all
Key Risks: war-on-land
On 11 April US envoy to the Middle East and prominent advisor to President Donald Trump, Steve Witkoff, met Russian President Vladimir Putin in St Petersburg. The two reportedly discussed the potential for a “settlement” to the war in Ukraine, but Moscow pointedly did not use the word ceasefire. No progress was announced. Trump subsequently criticised the pace of peace talks, stating that Russia needed to “get moving.” In late March reports emerged that Washington was aiming to secure a ceasefire between the two parties ahead of Easter, which now appears highly unlikely. Although Trump did not renew threats for additional sanctions following Witkoff’s meeting with Putin, he had increasingly made such threats in recent weeks, with reports claiming he might realise those if Russia did not agree to a ceasefire by the end of April.
Click here to access Ukraine’s Global Intake profile and here to access Russia’s Global Intake profile.
Europe: Civil unrest risk elevated in Hungary over law banning LGBTQ+ events
Sectors: all
Key Risks: civil unrest; political stability
In Hungary, on 14 April lawmakers will vote on a constitutional amendment to codify the ban on LGBTQ+ events approved by parliament in a fast-track process on 18 March and signed by President Tamas Sulyok on 19 March. The law will effectively ban Pride marches, making LGBTQ+ events an offence, with violators facing fines of up to EUR500. The vote will come despite widespread opposition against the law, which has included a series of protests that occasionally turned disruptive in the capital Budapest. The opposition Momentum party compared the law to similar legislation in Russia and called on people to join them in blocking parliament to prevent lawmakers from codifying it. Civil unrest risks will remain elevated during the vote as well as in the days after as parliament is likely to codify the law.
Click here to access Hungary’s Global Intake country profile.
MENA: New oil and gas discoveries in Western Desert boost energy outlooks for Egypt
Sectors: energy
Key risks: business risks; economic risks; political impasse
In Egypt, on 13 April Khalda Petroleum Company announced three new oil and gas discoveries in Matrouh province’s Siwa, Abu Gharadig and Alamein basins, Western Desert. The finds followed recent drilling successes by the firm – a joint venture between the Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation and US-based Apache. The discoveries are estimated to produce a combined 2,750 barrels of oil and condensates and 20 million cubic feet of gas per day. This will likely strengthen domestic output and reinforce energy security amid Cairo’s broader efforts to attract investment in upstream development. Provided that reserves are proven commercially viable, Cairo will likely pursue accelerated field development, encouraging additional foreign investment in the Western Desert region. However, regulatory clarity and political stability will be key to sustaining momentum, while challenges such as infrastructure constraints and global energy price fluctuations could pose risks to development timelines.
Click here to access Egypt’s Global Intake country profile.
Sub-Saharan Africa: 101 bandits killed in Katsina state as banditry persist in northwest Nigeria
Sectors: all
Key risks: internal conflict; communal violence; violent clashes
In Nigeria, on 12 April at least 101 bandits – known as state militia – were killed, including major bandit leader Gwaska Dankarami, in anti-banditry operations in Katsina state. The military operation came after on 5 April 43 civilians were kidnapped by Katsina state militia in Mairoga, Katsina state. Banditry has continued to plague the northwestern states of the country despite the military’s launch of an anti-bandity operation called Fansan Yamma in October 2024 as several bandits leaders – most notorious of which is Bello Turji – have escalated attacks on civilian populations in response. The activity of Islamic State-aligned Lakurawa group and the growing connection between banditry and terrorism have complicated the security landscape in the north, loosening government influence and leading to the proliferation of self-defence groups and vigilantes. State militias will continue to extort and kidnap civilians despite periodic successes in Operation Fansan Yamma.
Click here to access Nigeria’s Global Intake profile
