Americas: Colombia’s labour unions to strike in support of President Petro’s referendum
Sectors: all
Key Risks: industrial action; vandalism; cargo transport
In Colombia, on 28 and 29 May labour unions led by the Unitary Workers’ Central (CUT) will stage a 48-hour nationwide strike to pressure Congress into approving President Gustavo Petro’s proposed labour reform referendum. This came after on 19 May President Petro’s government submitted a revised 16-question referendum proposal – including the original 12 questions on labour reform and an additional four on health reform – to Congress after the Senate rejected its earlier version on 14 May. Petro has faced congressional challenges in passing his reform programme, including efforts to expand worker protections by aiming to standardise eight-hour workdays and increase weekend and holiday pay, among other measures. With demonstrators likely to set up road blockades in Bogota, Cali, Medellin and Barranquilla, traffic disruptions are expected. The risk of vandalism is low but cannot be entirely ruled out.
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Asia Pacific: Cambodia to assist Indonesia in combating human trafficking
Sectors: all
Key Risks: gang violence; targeted attacks
On 22 May reports emerged that Indonesia’s Immigration and Corrections Ministry and Cambodia’s General Department of Immigration signed a letter of intent on 19 May, pledging closer collaboration on tackling human trafficking. This followed an alarming increase in cases involving Indonesians trafficked to both Thailand and Cambodia since the COVID-19 pandemic. The agreement focuses on sharing information, technical support and building human resource capacity to better protect citizens from trafficking networks. Jakarta also pledged to send a dedicated security attache to Phnom Penh to strengthen direct bilateral relations. While a coordinated effort to combat the phenomenon is likely to yield results, the campaign is also likely to trigger a rise in retaliatory attacks against local security forces by organised crime networks in all three countries. Continued efforts to curb human trafficking are expected, especially by Jakarta, in the short and medium term.
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Eurasia: Russia steps up attacks in Ukraine, clashes intensify ahead of summer offensive
Sectors: all
Key Risks: war-on-land;
In Ukraine, on 26 May Ukrainian officials acknowledged that Russian forces had expanded their foothold in the far north of Sumy Oblast from the towns of Novenke and Basivka to Zhuravka and Beselivka. Kyiv still claims it controls slivers of Russia’s Kursk Oblast to the east despite Russian statements that it had re-taken control of these earlier this month. Russian forces have increasingly threatened to renew attacks on Kharkiv Oblast and tested Ukraine’s defences in Sumy and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts ahead of an anticipated summer offensive to distract Ukrainian forces from the main fighting in the east and prevent Ukrainian border raids into Russia. Clashes will intensify in Sumy Oblast as Moscow seeks to expand its foothold, although the heaviest clashes will remain concentrated around Pokrovsk and Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast. Moscow will also continue to step up countrywide drone and missile strikes amid waning US support for Kyiv.
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Europe: Poland to elect new president in 1 June runoff
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stability; governability
In Poland, on 1 June citizens will head to the polls to vote in a presidential runoff which will see a tight race between Civic Platform (PO) candidate Rafal Trzaskowski and Law and Justice (PiS) backed Karol Nawrocki. Trzaskowski narrowly won the first round on 18 May with 31.4 per cent, with Nawrocki gaining 29.5 per cent. Opinion polls suggest the race will be very close, with the outcome largely depending on support of those who voted for Konfederacja candidate Slawomir Mentzen in the first round. While he has officially not supported any candidate, he met both on his YouTube channel, capitalising on his kingmaking position to make them agree to several of his conditions, including a pledge not to ratify Ukraine’s potential NATO membership. Nawrocki signed the declaration. Trzaskowski’s victory would significantly strengthen Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s government, reducing governability risks.
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MENA: Five AQAP militants killed in US airstrike in Yemen’s Khabar Al-Maraqsha, Abyan province
Sectors: all
Key risks: terrorism; internal conflict; regional conflict
In Yemen, on 24 May five al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) militants, including a local leader, were killed in a US airstrike in the mountainous area of Khabar Al-Maraqsha, Abyan province. This was the first US airstrike since the ceasefire agreement between the US and Huthi forces came into effect on 6 May. The operation followed clashes on 16 May between the Southern Transitional Council (STC) and AQAP militants in Wadi Awmran, Abyan. The strike was part of ongoing US counterterrorism efforts targeting AQAP, which remains active across southern and central provinces. Given AQAP’s continued operational presence and threat, further US airstrikes against its positions are likely in the coming weeks, maintaining pressure on the group despite the fragile ceasefire framework.
Click here to access Yemen’s Global Intake country profile.
Sub-Saharan Africa: Government launches counter-offensive in central and southern Somalia
Sectors: all
Key risks: terrorism; internal conflict; communal violence
In Somalia on 22 May Defence Minister Ahmed Fiqi announced that 120 al-Shabaab militants were killed during government counter-offensives that began on 17 May. The Somali National Army (SNA) alongside the National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) and regional forces attacked al-Shabaab positions in Lower Juba, Middle Shabelle, Lower Shabelle and Hiraan regions. The government is looking to recapture bases and towns captured by al-Shabaab during the militant group’s Ramadan offensive in February – particularly the strategically important base in Aadan Yabaal, Middle Shabelle region. Although the counter-offensive has seen some initial successes, disagreements among branches of security forces and wider political tensions between the federal member states (FMS) threaten the cohesion among federal, regional and clan forces. Security forces will continue efforts to capture al-Shabaab hideouts and re-establish control in the centre of the country but questions will linger over their capacity to hold recaptured territory.
Click here to access Somalia’s Global Intake profile.
