Americas: Hundreds of informal miners protest, block copper routes in Peru
Sectors: all; mining
Key Risks: civil unrest, disruptive unrest; violent clashes; economic risks; business risks; business disruptions
In Peru, on 4 July hundreds of informal miners blocked key copper routes used by major miners MMG, Glencore and Hudbay in Chumbivilcas province. The blockades are part of nationwide protests organised by the artisanal and informal miners’ organisation, CONFEMIN, to demand the extension of government deadlines for formalising informal mining operations under the REINFO programme. The protests, which began on 26 June, came following the government’s decision to extend the REINFO programme until December 2025, with protesters arguing the requirements were difficult to meet. The blockades coincided with the government’s removal of 50,565 informal miners from REINFO due to mining inactivity. As the affected mines represent a substantial portion of copper output, there is an increased likelihood of sector-wide operational disruption. The risks of civil unrest and clashes with security forces, in efforts to dismantle the blockades, will remain heightened.
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Asia Pacific: Malaysia’s ruling party lawmakers call for royal inquiry into judicial vacancies
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political uncertainty; political instability
In Malaysia, on 7 July nine lawmakers from the ruling Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) party submitted a request for a royal inquiry to determine the nature of two prolonged vacancies in the country’s judiciary. Chief Justice Tengku Maimat Tuan Mat and President Abang Iskandar Abang Hashim of the Court of Appeals retired on 2 July and 3 July, respectively, leaving their positions vacant. Lawmakers accused Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim of “political interference in judicial matters” by not filling the seats, indicating a rare strike in the ruling party. Anwar is expected to be summoned for an explanation, although an exact timeline for hearings has yet to be confirmed. While a vote of no-confidence and rebellion on key legislation votes are unlikely in the short term, the lawmakers’ rare dissent may present a challenge to Anwar’s leadership in the long term.
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Eurasia: Trump signals dim prospects for Ukraine peace after call with Russian President Putin
Sectors: all
Key Risks: war-on-land;
On 3 July US President Donald Trump stated he was “disappointed” with his latest phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, as Putin did not appear willing to halt his invasion of Ukraine. The call came amid faltering US efforts to broker a ceasefire between Kyiv and Moscow. Putin reiterated his demands to end NATO expansion and Western support for Kyiv before fighting is stopped. This came after on 1 July French President Emmanuel Macron and Putin held their first phone call in nearly three years, in which Macron repeated his calls for a ceasefire. When asked about the 2 July partial pause on US weapons shipments to Kyiv, Trump stated that Washington was still providing some arms but blamed former president Joe Biden for sending too much aid, dwindling US supplies. US aid will likely remain limited, unless Trump feels emboldened to pressure Putin into peace talks.
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Europe: Increased stability and governability risks in Kosovo amid failure to select speaker
Sectors: all
Key Risks: Political stability; governability; political impasse; political polarisation; political uncertainty; government instability
In Kosovo, on 5 July authorities evacuated the parliament due to a bomb threat, disrupting the 42nd session to select a new parliament speaker following the 9 February general elections. MPs returned to the parliament building in the afternoon but failed to elect the speaker. They reconvened on 7 July, but the session was once again unsuccessful. The parliament has been deadlocked since the Vetevendosje party won the February vote without securing a majority. This has left its position in parliament weakened, with the opposition repeatedly voting against the party’s proposed candidate, Albulena Haxhiu. Despite the repeated rejection, the party has refused to choose a different candidate. On 26 June the Constitutional Court ordered MPs to reach consensus within 30 days but did not specify what would happen if the deadline was not met. However, a parliament dissolution and snap elections appear to be an increasingly likely scenario.
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MENA: Commercial vessel attacked by skiffs and unmanned sea drones off Yemen’s coast
Sectors: all; maritime security
Key risks: targeted attacks; cargo transport; regional escalation; terrorism
In Yemen, on 6 July the Magic Seas, a Liberian-flagged, Greek-owned bulk carrier, was damaged in an attack about 100 km southwest of al-Hudaydah province. The assault, lasting over four hours, involved small arms fire, rocket-propelled grenades from skiffs and unmanned sea drones and missiles. The 19 crew members were unharmed and rescued by a passing ship. Although no group claimed responsibility, Huthi-linked media outlets reported the incident, indicating likely involvement. The ship, travelling from China to Turkey, had no declared connections to Israel, but it had previously docked there. The attack occurred amid increased maritime insecurity in the Red Sea following the 12-day Israel-Iran conflict. Similar attacks are expected in the short term as Huthi rhetoric intensifies and regional tensions remain high. Risks to vessels passing through the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait will remain high.
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Sub-Saharan Africa: At least 80 militants killed as JNIM attacks seven towns in western Mali
Sectors: all
Key risks: insurgency; violent clashes; targeted attacks
In Mali, on 1 July at least 80 militants and several soldiers were killed in coordinated attacks by Islamist group Jama’at Nasr al Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) on seven towns and cities in Kayes and Segou regions. The Malian Armed Forces (FAMa), supported by Africa Corps (formerly Wagner Group) repelled the attacks within hours. While the attack failed to capture towns, it underscored JNIM’s expanding presence westwards. The attacks targeted Diobolo and Gogui cities which lay within 5 km of Mali’s border with Senegal and Mauritania, raising concerns over JNIM’s potential ability to infiltrate both countries. In the aftermath of the attacks, JNIM announced blockades on Kayes and Nioro du Sahel, Kayes region, on 3 July. The blockades highlighted JNIM’s growing strength in the western regions, which will likely lead to the militant group expanding its influence in the rural areas of the economically crucial Kayes region.
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