Ones to Watch, 8 October 2018

Americas: Costa Rica’s controversial tax reform moves forward; strike to continue Sectors: all Key Risks: civil unrest; strikes; policy changes In Costa Rica, Congress approved a controversial tax reform on 5 October amid ongoing protests from public sector workers. The government-backed Strengthening Public Finance bill is aimed at addressing a fiscal crisis. The Constitutional...

Russia – Ukraine: The battle of the Churches

Date first published: 27/09/2018 Key sectors: all Key risks: civil unrest, property disputes The Russian Orthodox Church recently announced that it will no longer cooperate and communicate with Constantinople Patriarch, Bartholomeus I. The announcement comes in light of Bartholomeus’s reported willingness to grant the Ukrainian Church autocephaly. If granted, autocephaly would make Ukrainian Church...

Ones to Watch, 1 October 2018

Americas: General elections in Brazil to lead to polarised presidential runoff Sectors: all Key Risks: policy uncertainty; political instability; civil unrest; governability In Brazil, general elections are scheduled to take place on 7 October with no presidential candidate expected to secure the 50 per cent needed to avoid a runoff on 28 October. Far-right...

Colombia: ELN peace talks at high risk of collapse

Date first published: 18/09/2018 Key sectors: oil and gas; electricity; security forces Key risks: insurgency; terrorism; targeted violence; kidnapping Formal peace talks between the government and the left-wing National Liberation Army (ELN) guerrillas are at high risk of collapse. Right-wing President Ivan Duque took office on 7 August and – as expected – took...

Ones to Watch, 24 September 2018

Americas: Labour unions launch 36-hour strike against Argentina’s government Sectors: all Key Risks: strikes; civil unrest; governability; policy continuity In Argentina, labour unions and social movements plan to launch a 36-hour long strike on 24 September led by the Workers’ Central Union (CTA) which the General Confederation of Labour (CGT), Argentina’s largest labour union,...