Ones to Watch
Americas: FARC disarmament could be further delayed; peace process unlikely to be derailed Sectors: all Key Risks: terrorism; insurgency; political stability In Colombia, FARC leader Rodrigo Londono stated he was considering postponing the FARC’s disarmament following the arrest of a rebel by government forces. The government stated there was an identity ‘confusion’ over the […]
Americas: embattled President Temer fights for survival Sectors: all Key Risks: political instability; civil unrest; corruption fallout In Brazil, President Michel Temer appears determined to fight for his political survival after fresh bribery allegations made public on 17 May put his presidency at the verge of collapse. Since then, several impeachment requests have been filed […]
Americas: disruption expected as teachers protests across Mexico Sectors: all Key Risks: civil unrest; commercial damage; disruptive blockades In Mexico, teachers’ unions are expected to demonstrate in the capital Mexico City to protest a series of grievances during Teacher’s Day on 15 May. Government officials announced the deployment of around 2,500 police officers to monitor […]
Americas: anti-government demonstrations to continue in Venezuela; high risk of violence Sectors: all Key Risks: civil unrest; violent clashes; political instability; looting In Venezuela, anti-government demonstrations are expected to persist at least over the coming days as the opposition plans to continue to take to the streets to demand early presidential elections, the release of […]
Americas: protests over Ecuadorian election continue while ELN peace talks under threat Sectors: all Key Risks: political instability; terrorism; civil unrest On 7 April Ecuadorian police forces raided the headquarters of polling firm Cedatos. Cedatos’ exit poll for the 2 April presidential election, which showed a six-point advantage for losing opposition candidate Guillermo Lasso, has […]
Americas: trial that could lead to Temer’s fall set to begin in Brazil Sectors: all Key Risks: political instability; strikes and demonstrations; corruption fallout; governability In Brazil, the Supreme Electoral Court (TSE) will begin the trial to define whether the 2014 Rousseff-Temer ticket should be annulled due to illegal electoral financing. The ruling could […]
Americas: Ecuador to face historic presidential runoff Sectors: all Key Risks: political stability; policy continuity; social unrest In Ecuador, a historic presidential runoff is scheduled to take place on 2 April between ruling party Alianza Pais (AP) candidate Lenin Moreno and opposition centre-right Creando Oportunidades (CREO) candidate Guillermo Lasso. Even though Lasso appeared to […]
Americas: new corruption probes to stoke political instability, governability risks in Brazil Sectors: all Key Risks: political instability; strikes and demonstrations; corruption fallout; governability In Brazil, President Michel Temer’s administration will likely face increased political instability and governability risks over the coming weeks and months. On 14 March General Prosecutor Rodrigo Janot requested the Supreme […]
Americas: decisive week for Gas Natural Fenosa – Electricaribe Sectors: all Key Risks: union-led disruptive unrest and strikes The coming week will be crucial for the future of Spain’s Gas Natural Fenosa’s (GNF) Colombian subsidiary Electricaribe (ECA), which has been under the control of the Colombian government since mid-November 2016. On 13 March GNF is […]
Americas: Argentina to face increased union-led unrest Sectors: all Key Risks: union-led disruptive unrest and strikes In Argentina, teachers’ unions will hold a 48-hour nationwide strike on 6-7 March, the first days of the school year, to protest against wage disputes which the government has not yet been able to resolve. Demonstrations are expected in […]
Americas: Ecuador prepares for historic presidential runoff Sectors: all Key Risks: political stability; policy continuity In Ecuador, the coming weeks will be marked by the electoral campaign ahead of the 2 April presidential runoff between ruling party Alianza Pais (AP) candidate Lenin Moreno and opposition centre-right Creando Oportunidades (CREO) candidate Guillermo Lasso. Final results from […]
Americas: Odebrecht corruption probe to intensify at regional scale Sectors: infrastructure; public works contracts Key Risks: contract cancellations/renegotiations; corruption fallout In Latin America, the investigations into Brazilian engineering conglomerate Odebrecht’s region-wide bribery scheme will continue to gain traction. On 16 February prosecutors in 11 countries signed an agreement to start a combined task force […]
