Ones to Watch, 18 June 2018

Americas: Dialogue to ease tensions to remain at risk in Nicaragua Sectors: all Key Risks: political stability; policy continuity; violent unrest In Nicaragua, the government and opposition representatives resumed a Catholic Church-mediated dialogue on 15 June to try to end a crisis in which at least 178 people have been killed since 18 April. Despite…

The 12 June US – North Korea Summit is all about China

Date first published: 07/06/2018 Key sectors: all Key risks: sanctions; war; nuclear On 12 June the on-again, off-again historic summit between US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un will take place in Singapore, on the island resort of Sentosa. Talks will focus on North Korea’s nuclear disarmament, but there are already disagreements on the method…

Ones to Watch: 11 June 2018

Americas: Right-wing Duque increasingly likely to win Colombia’s 17 June presidential runoff Sectors: all Key Risks: political violence; policy continuity In Colombia, a presidential runoff is scheduled to take place on 17 June. Right-wing Democratic Centre (DC) party candidate Ivan Duque leads in the last poll released before the upcoming vote. According to the poll,…

Malaysia: Mahathir’s unlikely comeback

Date first published: 22/05/2018 Key sectors: all Key risks: political stability The stunning election victory of 92-year old Mahathir Mohamad and his then-opposition Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition on 9 May marked a historic turning point for Malaysia as PH secured an outright majority in Parliament. Equally as impressive is the fact that the country’s first transition…

Ones to Watch, 21 May 2018

Americas: Colombia to hold presidential election on 27 May Sectors: all Key Risks: political violence; policy continuity In Colombia, presidential elections are scheduled to take place on 27 May. According to the last polls to be published before the vote, centre-right Democratic Centre party candidate Ivan Duque remains the frontrunner. According to Invamer, Duque is…