Americas: Demonstrations announced against Sao Paulo Forum in Honduras on 27-28 June

Sectors: all
Key Risks: traffic disruptions; civil unrest

In Honduras, on 19 June the National Anticorruption Movement non-governmental organisation announced that it would stage a protest against the Sao Paulo Forum, taking place in the capital Tegucigalpa on 27-28 June. The organisers stated that the Forum – an annual gathering of left-wing political parties and organisations in Latin America, including the country’s ruling Liberty and Refoundation Party (LIBRE) – is a form of foreign interference in domestic affairs that could politically destabilise it. They also alleged that the event could jeopardise the country’s relations with the US – on which the country economically depends – considering the latter’s opposition to far-left ideology. As opposition parties are expected to join, LIBRE might mobilise its supporters in response, heightening the risk of violent clashes. The protest is likely to reach several thousand attendees, causing major traffic disruptions in the capital.

Click here to access Honduras’s Global Intake country profile.

Asia Pacific: Mongolia to hold parliamentary election amid widespread discontent over economy

Sectors: all
Key Risks: political uncertainty; policy continuity; government instability

In Mongolia, on 28 June a parliamentary election will be held, marking the first such vote since anti-government protests broke out in 2021 and 2022, and since constitutional amendments passed in May 2023 significantly enlarged the State Great Khural – the country’s unicameral legislature – from 76 to 126 seats. The ruling Mongolian People’s Party (MPP) is defending a parliamentary supermajority but it has faced widespread public discontent over government corruption – particularly in the dominant coal sector – and a broader sense of economic malaise in recent years. Despite generally low levels of political violence in Mongolia, concerns over electoral-related violence have heightened after an opposition Democratic Party (DP) politician was beaten to death on 15 June at a campaign rally. Even with the electoral reform and palpable public dissatisfaction with the government, the political opposition remains highly fragmented and the MPP is widely expected to retain its majority.

Click here to access Mongolia’s Global Intake country profile.

Eurasia: Brussels considers sanctions against Georgia in response to “foreign agents” law

Sectors: all
Key Risks: sanctions; political stability; civil unrest

In Georgia, on 21 June reports emerged that on 24 June European Union (EU)’s Foreign Ministers would discuss potential sanctions on Tbilisi in response to its passing of the “foreign agents” law. On 3 June Speaker of Parliament Shalva Papuashvili, from the ruling Georgian Dream party, signed the controversial bill into law after on 28 May parliament overturned President Salome Zourabichvili’s 18 May veto. Tens of thousands of people have protested against the bill since early April in Tbilisi. The law allows Tbilisi to label media and civil society groups as “organisations carrying the interests of a foreign power” if they received foreign funding. Possible sanctions by the EU would target government officials, restrict visa-free access and cut funding. The law jeopardises Tbilisi’s EU accession candidacy and could prompt Brussels to suspend membership negotiations.

Click here to access Georgia’s Global Intake country profile.

Europe: France to hold snap parliamentary elections on 30 June and 7 July amid far-right surge

Sectors: all
Key Risks: political instability; policy uncertainty; civil unrest

In France, on 30 June and 7 July citizens will head to the polls to vote in the two-round snap parliamentary elections. President Emmanuel Macron called the election on 9 June after exit polls in the European Parliament election showed that the far-right National Rally (RN) was set to win around 32 per cent of the vote, compared to around 15 per cent for Macron’s Renaissance party. The election results sparked protests by thousands of people against the far-right. RN has been leading in polls with around 35 per cent support ahead of the vote. Macron’s move is widely seen as a political gamble, with Macron likely seeking to undermine RN’s victory by testing the party’s strength in a national election. However, the election risks accelerating RN’s rise in parliament, which would undermine Macron’s position and raise the risk of political gridlock.

Click here to access France’s Global Intake country profiles.

MENA: Israel-Hizbullah tensions high amid increasingly aggressive postures

Sectors: all
Key risks: war-on-land; regional escalation

In Lebanon, on 19 June Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah warned that “no place” in Israel would be safe if a full-scale war erupted and that war would be fought with “no restraint and no rules.” Nasrallah’s remarks followed Israel Defense Forces (IDF)’s 18 June approval of plans for a military offensive on Lebanese territory. Subsequently, on 23 June Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that Israeli operations in Rafah are nearly over and indicated an imminent redeployment of some troops to the northern Israeli border. The Israeli government’s increasingly aggressive posture towards Hizbullah has raised concerns in Washington about the risk of a broader conflict. Within Israel, Netanyahu’s focus on Hizbullah is likely to be highly contested amid daily nationwide demonstrations calling on the government to prioritise the release of Israeli hostages in Gaza and for fresh elections to be held.

Click here to access Lebanon‘s Global Intake country profile.

Sub-Saharan Africa: Rwanda escalates tensions with DRC over genocide allegations

Sectors: all, minerals, extractives
Key risks: war, regional escalation

In Rwanda, on 21 June President Paul Kagame issued a warning to Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) President Felix Tshisekedi over the military situation in eastern DRC. He emphasised Rwanda’s readiness to fight if hostilities further escalated with the DRC, with Kigali perceiving the Kivu conflict as a growing national security threat. Kinshasa and Kigali have traded accusations over alleged Rwandan support for March 23 Movement rebel group, the presence of Rwandan troops in the DRC and claims of genocide by Congolese forces and M23. While the upcoming 15 July general elections are poised to be a formality for Kagame, this latest episode in a series of escalations since 2022 demonstrates his commitment to Rwandan interests. As M23 makes progress in the DRC’s eastern regions, the likelihood of cross-border skirmishes and increased military activity along the Rwanda-DRC border will increase in the coming weeks

Click here to access Rwanda’s Global Intake country profile.