Americas: Increased police presence following coup attempt in Bolivia

Sectors: transport; all
Key Risks: political stability; traffic disruption; civil unrest

In Bolivia, on 26 June the army took control over Plaza Murillo square in the capital La Paz and forced entry into the presidential palace in an apparent coup attempt, led by General Juan Jose Zuniga. The attempt failed after the military retreated, leading to Zuniga’s arrest – who claimed that the uprising had been staged to bolster support for President Luis Arce ahead of the 2025 general elections. Zuniga was stripped of his military command by Arce on 25 June after threatening to arrest former president Evo Morales if he attempted to run in the 2025 elections. Should Zuniga’s allegations of a ‘self-coup’ gain traction with Morales’ supporters, the risk of clashes between them and Arce’s supporters cannot be ruled out. Increased police presence and traffic disruption in La Paz are likely in the coming days.

Click here to access Bolivia’s Global Intake country profile.

Asia Pacific: VBIED attack risks resurgence of insurgent activity in Thailand’s Deep South

Sectors: internal security
Key Risks: targeted attacks; terrorism; insurgency

In Thailand, on 30 June a civilian bystander was killed and 21 others – including at least eight police officers – were injured in a VBIED attack outside a police residential compound in Bannang Sata, Bannang Sata district, Yala province. Authorities suspected insurgents to be behind the attack, likely aimed at fostering unrest in the region. A local official from Yala’s Than To district has since been arrested after a government pickup was used in the incident, which marked the first VBIED attack across the three insurgency-ridden Muslim-majority southern provinces in 2024. In November 2022 a police officer was killed and 30 other people were injured in a similar VBIED attack in neighbouring Narathiwat province. The latest attack came despite renewed peace talks between Bangkok and the Patani Malay National Revolutionary Front (BRN) insurgent group in Malaysia. Further attacks targeting security forces are likely.

Click here to access Thailand’s Global Intake country profile.

Eurasia: China’s President Xi to attend SCO summit in Kazakhstan, pay state visits

Sectors: all
Key Risks: geopolitical tensions; trade and foreign investment; security cooperation

In Kazakhstan, on 30 June China’s Foreign Ministry announced that Chinese President Xi Jinping would attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO)’s summit in Astana on 3-4 July and conduct state visits to Kazakhstan and Tajikistan at the invitation of the two countries. The SCO – a political and security group led by Russia and China – will discuss economic and energy issues as well as the fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and global geopolitical tensions. Beijing is a major trading partner of Astana and an economic and security partner of Dushanbe. Xi has led Beijing’s push for greater political and economic influence in Central Asia while deepening ties with Russia following the invasion. Central Asian states in turn seek greater trade and investments from China. Bilateral ties will continue to deepen as Beijing seeks to solidify its presence in the strategically important region.

Click here to access Kazakhstan’s and here to access Tajikistan’s Global Intake country profiles.

Europe: UK, France to hold key elections on 4 and 7 July

Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stability; policy continuity

In the United Kingdom (UK), voters will head to the polls in the 4 July general election. The Labour Party is expected to win an absolute majority, ending 14 years of Conservative-led governments. Labour is polling around 20 percentage points ahead of the Conservatives who could fall to around 100 seats.  A Labour government will likely be moderate but could marginally increase taxes on inheritance and capital gains. Separately, in France, on 7 July voters will vote in the second round of the snap parliamentary elections after the far-right National Rally (RN) secured a victory with 33 per cent of the vote in the first round on 30 June. The left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) alliance came in second with 28 per cent, while President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist bloc came in third with 20 per cent. Parties will engage in alliance-building talks ahead of the run-off.

Click here to access the UK’s and here to access France’s Global Intake country profiles.

MENA: Reformist and hardline candidates headed for Iranian presidential election runoff

Sectors: all
Key risks: political stability; civil unrest

In Iran, on 28 June the first round of the presidential election concluded with reformist candidate Masoud Pezeshkian leading with 44 per cent of the vote, ahead of hardline conservative Saeed Jalili with 40 per cent. However, the ballot was marked by a low voter turnout of close to 40 per cent – the lowest in a presidential election in the Islamic Republic’s history – amid high voter apathy and widespread frustration with economic hardships and a crackdown on dissent. The snap election followed the 19 May death of then-president Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash. While Pezeshkian topped the first round, Jalili is expected to receive a substantial portion of the votes cast for other conservative candidates disqualified in the runoff. Pezeshkian will be hoping for a strong mobilisation of moderate voters who abstained in the first round. The runoff is scheduled for 5 July.

Click here to access Iran‘s Global Intake country profile.

Sub-Saharan Africa: Kenya’s Ruto rejects Finance Bill as protesters demand his resignation

Sectors: all
Key risks: civil unrest, political stability, political violence

In Kenya, on 26 June President William Ruto announced that he refused to sign the 2024 Finance Bill following major protests across the country. Organised protests, under the moniker ‘7 Days of Rage’ started in Nairobi but spread to 35 of the country’s 47 counties. In a televised address, Ruto stated that he had heard the reaction from the public and, therefore, would not assent to the current version of the 2024 Finance Bill. Ruto distanced himself from his party’s comments and actions taken by security forces. With the Nairobi high court’s approval of Kenya Defence Forces (KDF) personnel being deployed in Nairobi on 26 June, security forces are likely to take more aggressive measures against protesters. The expansion of the protest movement’s aims to demand Ruto’s resignation indicates that protests will persist in the coming weeks.

Click here to access Kenya’s Global Intake country profile.