Americas: Rice farmers launch nationwide blockades in Colombia
Sectors: all; agricultural
Key Risks: business disruptions; trade disruptions; supply chain disruptions; cargo transport
In Colombia, on 3 March rice farmers initiated an indefinite nationwide campaign of road blockades in demand for fair prices – currently at COP180,000 (US$44) – for their harvests. The producers requested that the government ensure a price of COP220,000 (US$52) per load, insisting that the decline in rice prices, combined with high production costs and unfair foreign competition, affected their profitability. Protesters threatened to intensify the blockades, which have caused food shortages due to transport disruptions, if the government did not resume negotiations on 10 March after their suspension on 6 March. The government iterated a need to establish a financial mechanism that would benefit the industry as well as rice farmers. While negotiations are expected to resume, inadequate government concessions are expected to extend the blockades, with intercity cargo transport and export-oriented logistics likely to be most affected.
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Asia Pacific: South Korea braces for protests ahead of verdict on President Yoon Suk-yeol
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political instability; political polarisation; disruptive unrest
In South Korea, on 10 March police reported preparing for the “worst-case scenario” of civil unrest ahead of the Constitutional Court’s decision on whether to remove President Yoon Suk-yeol from office. The decision, which is expected to be announced by 14 March, followed Yoon’s failed attempt to declare martial law on 3 December, a motion which the National Assembly unanimously voted against. Yoon was released from detention on 6 March, with rival protests on 8 March attracting a total of over 100,000 people on both sides of the political divide in Seoul. Police stated that key subway stations in Seoul, including Yongsan, Yeongdeungpo, Jung and Jogno will be closed ahead of time due anticipated heavy protest activity in the area, given the neighbourhoods’ presence of government buildings. Civil unrest risks countrywide will remain elevated in the short term.
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Eurasia: US and Ukraine’s delegations to meet in Saudi Arabia amid tensions between allies
Sectors: all
Key Risks: war-on-land
On 11 March senior US and Ukrainian officials will meet in Saudi Arabia for talks on a proposed minerals deal between the two sides and ending the war in Ukraine. The meeting will be the first since the meeting on 28 February between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House, which ended in a disastrous publicised spat amid tensions over Trump’s push for peace talks. On 3 March Washington suspended financing for Kyiv until Zelensky agrees to peace talks with Russia, and on 5 March the US also paused intelligence sharing with Ukraine. The two sides have since sought to ease tensions and Kyiv expressed readiness to enter negotiations to end the war and sign the mineral deals. However, tensions will remain amid fears Washington is seeking to pressure Kyiv into making major concessions to Russia.
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Europe: Clashes erupt in Romania over rejection of far-right candidate Georgescu’s election bid
Sectors: all
Key Risks: political stabiltiy; civil unrest; political polarisation
In Romania, on 9 March supporters of far-right presidential candidate Calin Georgescu clashed with police outside the Central Election Bureau in Bucharest after the agency rejected Georgescu’s candidacy in the upcoming 4 and 18 May presidential elections. Georgescu won the 24 November 2024 presidential first round amid claims the country was targeted by “aggressive Russian hybrid attacks”, including a massive promotion of Georgescu on the social media platform TikTok. This prompted the Constitutional Court to annul the results on 6 December 2024 and schedule a new vote. On 6 March a court upheld preventative measures on Georgescu amid a criminal probe that includes charges of providing false information about campaign financing. On 10 March Georgescu stated he would appeal the ban on his candidacy with the Constitutional Court. Far-right protests over the election have increasingly turned violent and further unrest is likely.
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MENA: Huthis warn of renewed attacks on Israeli-linked ships
Sectors: all
Key risks: war at sea; business risks; trade disruptions;
In Yemen, on 7 March Huthi leader Abdul-Malik al-Huthi warned that naval attacks on Israeli-linked shipping would resume if the blockade on Gaza is not lifted by 11 March. Hamas welcomed the announcement, praising the Huthis’ continued support. On 2 March Tel Aviv suspended aid shipments into Gaza after Hamas refused to accept a US proposal to extend the first phase of the ceasefire agreement. On 19 January the Huthis announced that they would suspend operations in the Red Sea in support of the ceasefire. Although many shipping companies continue to avoid the Red Sea and the Suez Canal because of the fragility of the Gaza ceasefire, an escalation in maritime attacks remains likely. If these attacks are perceived as ineffective due to reduced maritime traffic, the Huthis could resume their attacks on Israeli territory, posing greater risks to military infrastructure than residential areas.
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Sub-Saharan Africa: 28 killed in Nasir, Upper Nile state as South Sudan slips closer to civil war
Sectors: all
Key risks: political violence; communal violence; civil war
In South Sudan, on 7 March 28 soldiers, including a senior military commander, were killed in an attack on a UN helicopter by the ‘White Army’ – an ethnic Nuer militia linked to Vice President Riek Machar, in Nasir, Upper Nile state. The arrest of ministers and military officials linked to Machar’s Sudan People’s Liberation Movement – In Opposition (SPLM-IO) between 2 and 7 March as well as the capture of Nasir, Upper Nile state, by the White Army have escalated tensions between President Salva Kiir and Machar. Machar and other SPLM-IO members have warned Kiir that further escalations threaten to undermine the 2018 revised peace agreement. Persisting tensions between the government and the SPLM-IO will increase the risk of ethnic and inter communal conflict, with further clashes between the White Army and the military in Upper Nile state highly likely in the coming weeks.
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