Americas: Panama’s government declares state of emergency in Bocas del Toro province
Sectors: all
Key Risks: civil unrest; disruptive unrest; violent clashes; vandalism; looting
In Panama, on 20 June the government declared a state of emergency (SoE) – suspending certain constitutional protections and banning public gatherings – in Bocas del Toro province until 25 June. The SoE came after on 19 June one person was killed, 30 others, including several police officers, were injured and another 50 were arrested when protests against pension reform escalated into clashes with security forces in Changuinola. Protesters looted businesses, partially set fire to a baseball stadium and took over the local airport. Bocas del Toro province has been a site of confrontations between protesters, led by striking workers of the Chiquita banana plantation and security forces, since protests erupted two months ago. Since Chiquita workers reached an agreement with the government last week, other groups have continued the blockades. Further protests, with a heightened risk of vandalism and violent confrontations, are likely.
Click here to access Panama’s Global Intake country profile.
Asia Pacific: Nationwide protests in Thailand demand Prime Minister’s resignation
Sectors: all
Key Risks: civil unrest; government instability; coup d’etat
In Thailand, on 21 June nationwide protests emerged in major cities to denounce Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra and call for her resignation. The protests came as a response to a leaked phone call – intended to de-escalate tensions after one Cambodian soldier was killed in the 28 May border clash near Nam Yuen district, Ubon Ratchathani province – between Shinawatra and former Cambodian prime minister Hun Sen. During the call, Shinawatra dismissed an army general as an “opponent” and referred to Hun as “uncle”. Protests, which have emerged in Bangkok, Nakhon Ratchasima, Udon Thani, Nakhon Si Thammarat, Phuket and Phitsanulok, denounced Shinawatra as a “traitor with no negotiation skills”. While Thailand’s military has ruled out staging a coup to removeShinawatra from office, the Bhumjaithai party – the second largest in the ruling coalition – withdrew from the coalition on 18 June, raising political stability risks in the short term.
Click here to access Thailand’s Global Intake country profile
Eurasia: Russia intensifies attacks on Ukraine amid stalling talks, US strikes on Iran
Sectors: all
Key Risks: war-on-land
In Ukraine, on 23 June at least nine people were killed and more than 30 others were injured in a Russian drone and missile attack on the capital Kyiv. The attack followed a series of Russian strikes in retaliation for Kyiv’s 1 June drone attack on four military airfields deep inside Russia. On 17 June 28 people – including a US national – were killed and more than 130 others were injured in the deadliest such attack in nearly a year in Kyiv. Amid US President Donald Trump’s stalling efforts to broker a peace deal between Kyiv and Moscow, Russia’s countrywide drone and missile attacks on Ukraine appear to be intensifying. Trump’s refusal to further sanction Russia and US airstrikes on Iran risk emboldening Moscow to carry out further deadly attacks. The risk of such attacks will remain high for the foreseeable future.
Click here to access Ukraine’s Global Intake profile.
Europe: Europe braces for risk of Iranian hybrid attacks after suspect arrested in Cyprus
Sectors: all; defence; diplomatic
Key Risks: targeted attacks; political violence
In Europe, the risk of Iranian-linked attacks against Israeli and Jewish targets has increased following the escalating Israel-Iran conflict. In Cyprus, on 21 June a UK national was arrested on suspicion of espionage and “terrorist-related” offences. Police did not provide further details, citing national security. Local media reported that the suspect is of Azerbaijani descent and is suspected of having links with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). He had allegedly surveilled the UK’s RAF Akrotiri base on the island. Separately, Israeli officials stated that an Iranian attempt to attack Israeli nationals on the island had been thwarted by police. It remained unclear if the two reports were linked. Iran is likely to step up asymmetrical attacks and covert operations against military facilities used by Israel’s Western allies, as well as other Israeli-linked targets, such as embassies and defence firms.
Click here to access Cyprus’ Global Intake country profile.
MENA: US strikes three nuclear sites in Iran amid escalating Iran-Israel conflict
Sectors: all
Key risks: nuclear war; targeted attacks; regional conflict; war on land; war at sea; economic risks; business disruptions; supply chain disruption
In Iran, on 22 June the US conducted strikes against Iran’s Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan nuclear facilities – the first instance of direct US involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict. The extent of the damage remained unclear. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi condemned the attacks as a violation of international law and vowed retaliation “by all means necessary”. Following the strikes, on 22 June Yemen’s Huthis declared an end to their 6 May ceasefire with the US and threatened to “close” the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran is very likely weighing its options, although all available scenarios range from bad to worse: a direct strike on US assets risks triggering a full-scale war, while failing to respond could erode the regime’s credibility. Asymmetric retaliation by Iranian-backed militias, particularly in Iraq and Syria, where Iran-aligned groups are reportedly awaiting a green light from Tehran, is highly likely in the coming days.
Click here to access Iran’s Global Intake country profile.
Sub-Saharan Africa: Protests in Nairobi as anniversary of nationwide protest looms in Kenya
Sectors: all
Key risks: civil unrest; arbitrary arrests; disruptive unrest
In Kenya, on 17 June clashes broke out between protesters and police forces in the capital Nairobi after a bystander was shot at close range by police officers, with reports indicating that the police force allegedly hired local gang members to assist with crowd control. Initial protests broke out on 12 June after an autopsy and police investigation on 8 June revealed that political blogger Albert Ojwang was killed by police officers while held in custody on 7 June. Although the officers responsible for his killing were arrested and await trial, protesters have called for the arrest of former deputy inspector general of police Eliud Lagat – who resigned on 16 June – for his role in Ojwang’s arrest. As vigils and memorial services are set to be held on 25 June to commemorate the one-year anniversary of nationwide protests, civil unrest risks will be heightened in the coming week.
Click here to access Kenya’s Global Intake profile.
