Americas: Ecuador’s security forces on alert for retaliatory violence following recapture of ‘Fito’
Sectors: all
Key Risks: violent clashes; gang violence; targeted attacks
In Ecuador, on 26 June the Interior Ministry stated that the armed forces were on “alert” for possible retaliatory violence following the 25 June recapture of Jose Adolfo Macias, alias ‘Fito’, the leader of Los Choneros criminal group and the country’s most wanted fugitive. ‘Fito’ was arrested in Manta, Manabi province, after escaping from Guayaquil prison, Guayas province, on 7 January 2024. His escape triggered a nationwide escalation of violence that led President Daniel Noboa to declare an “internal armed conflict” against organised crime and designate 22 gangs as terrorist organisations on 9 January 2024. As Los Choneros have previously engaged in an armed takeover of a national TV station, detained hundreds of prison officers and detonated explosives, the risk of a violent response to his arrest, including targeting of security forces assets, will remain heightened in the coming weeks.
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Asia Pacific: Thailand’s police launch investigation as fourth suspected IED discovered in Phuket
Sectors: tourism
Key Risks: terrorism; political violence
In Thailand, on 26 June police discovered a fourth suspected IED embedded in concrete near a popular sunset viewing area in Promthep Cape, Phuket province. On 24 June two people were arrested after an IED was discovered in a car bound for Phuket in Phang Nga province, while two others were located at Phuket International Airport and Patong Beach on 25 June. While investigators stated that all but the first devices were likely intended to cause panic, rather than destruction, police announced on 26 June that all visitors to Phuket would be subject to upgraded safety protocols, including additional screening at airports and provincial crossings, as well as enhanced security force patrols in high-traffic areas. Despite violent incidents largely limited to Yala, Narathiwat and Pattani provinces, Phuket’s status as a tourist hub indicates that further such incidents are likely.
Click here to access Thailand’s Global Intake country profile
Eurasia: Arrest of prominent Archbishop over coup plot fuels unrest risks in Armenia
Sectors: all
Key Risks: civil unrest; political stability
In Armenia, on 25 June Archbishop Bagrat Galstanyan – a prominent opposition leader – and 13 other people were arrested on suspicion of organising an alleged coup plot. Authorities accused the suspects of planning to commit a “terrorist attack” and seize power. In May 2024 Galstanyan led mass anti-government protests amid public anger over concessions by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan to delimit a border with Azerbaijan as part of peace negotiations. The arrests marked an escalation in Pashinyan’s standoff with the influential Apostolic Church. On 27 June National Security Service (NSS) officers clashed with supporters of the Church while attempting to detain Archbishop Mikayel Ajapahyan in Vagharshapat, Armavir province, over his alleged calls to usurp power. NSS stated it had failed to detain him and withdrew from the area to prevent escalation. The widening rifts between the government and the church will heighten civil unrest and political stability risks.
Click here to access Armenia’s Global Intake profile.
Europe: Dozens detained after anti-government protesters clash with police in Serbia
Sectors: all
Key Risks: civil unrest; political stability
In Serbia, on 28 June at least six police officers were injured and dozens of people were detained after anti-government protesters clashed with police in the capital Belgrade. Protesters gathered near parliament and the nearby Pionirski Park to demand snap elections and an end to President Aleksandar Vucic’s rule. Pro-Vucic supporters gathered for a counter-protest, and clashes erupted after police tried to prevent a confrontation between the two sides. This came after on 26 June authorities arrested several suspects accused of plotting a violent coup, claiming they were planning to organise attacks on state institutions and pro-government media. The opposition condemned the arrests as politically motivated, with hundreds gathering in Belgrade in protest. The protest came amid a series of student-led protests that erupted in late 2024 following a Novi Sad train station accident. Further unrest is likely but will largely remain peaceful.
Click here to access Serbia’s Global Intake country profile.
MENA: Israel’s Shin Bet arrests 60 Hamas operatives in largest counter-terrorism operation
Sectors: all
Key risks: governance; terrorism;
In Gaza and the West Bank, on 29 June the Israeli Shin Bet reported that it arrested over 60 Hamas operatives and disrupted 10 militant cells during a three-month operation in Hebron, in the Israeli-occupied West Bank. The coordinated operation with Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and police resulted in terrorism-related charges. The agency described it as the largest counter-terrorism operation in the West Bank in a decade. The operation – called Operation Iron Wall – was launched on 21 January to maintain operational freedom, dismantle militant infrastructure and eliminate imminent shooting and bombing threats. Since 7 October 2023, at least 2,350 Hamas-affiliated individuals have been arrested across the West Bank. Continued efforts to dismantle Hamas operations are likely, with further arrests and intelligence breakthroughs expected in coming months.
Click here to access Gaza and the West Bank’s Global Intake country profile.
Sub-Saharan Africa: DRC and Rwanda pen US-brokered ceasefire agreement
Sectors: all; mining
Key risks: regional conflict; economic risks; internal conflict
On 27 June the Foreign Ministers of Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda signed a ceasefire agreement brokered by the US. The agreement outlined the withdrawal of Rwandan soldiers from the DRC and Kinshasa’s commitment to conducting operations against Hutu extremist group the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FLDR). The deal also involves forming a regional economic integration framework within 90 days and a joint-security agreement in 30 days. Questions remain over whether both sides will abide by the agreement. DRC officials remain wary over Rwanda’s support for the March 23 Movement (M23) rebel group, who were not party to the negotiations. In addition, Rwanda emphasised that any agreement was contingent on DRC forces neutralising the FLDR. Continued fighting between M23 and pro-government forces in the DRC could hinder the deal’s implementation.
Click here to access DRC’s and here to access Rwanda’ s Global Intake profile.
