Insights
Date first published: 18/10/2018 Key sectors: aviation; infrastructure; oil & gas Key risks: business disruption; political violence Over the last four months, Yemen’s Huthi militia have released multiple media reports claiming to have conducted both drone and missile attacks on Emirati airports and Saudi vessels. Such reports, if true, indicate a new level in Huthi capabilities to hit […]
Americas: Far-right Jair Bolsonaro likely to win Brazil’s polarised presidential runoff Sectors: all Key Risks: political stability; civil unrest; policy changes In Brazil, a highly polarised presidential runoff between right-wing frontrunner Jair Bolsonaro and leftist Workers’ Party candidate (PT) Fernando Haddad will be held on 28 October. Former army captain Bolsonaro was polling at almost […]
Americas: Court rulings affecting mining projects in Chile Sectors: mining Key Risks: frustration of process; contract scrutiny In Chile, court rulings have recently affected several mining-related projects. On 11 October the Constitutional Court suspended a deal allowing China’s Tianqi Lithium to buy a 24 per cent stake in Chile’s SQM after agreeing to hear arguments […]
Americas: Costa Rica’s controversial tax reform moves forward; strike to continue Sectors: all Key Risks: civil unrest; strikes; policy changes In Costa Rica, Congress approved a controversial tax reform on 5 October amid ongoing protests from public sector workers. The government-backed Strengthening Public Finance bill is aimed at addressing a fiscal crisis. The Constitutional Chamber […]
Americas: General elections in Brazil to lead to polarised presidential runoff Sectors: all Key Risks: policy uncertainty; political instability; civil unrest; governability In Brazil, general elections are scheduled to take place on 7 October with no presidential candidate expected to secure the 50 per cent needed to avoid a runoff on 28 October. Far-right frontrunner […]
Americas: Labour unions launch 36-hour strike against Argentina’s government Sectors: all Key Risks: strikes; civil unrest; governability; policy continuity In Argentina, labour unions and social movements plan to launch a 36-hour long strike on 24 September led by the Workers’ Central Union (CTA) which the General Confederation of Labour (CGT), Argentina’s largest labour union, plans […]
Americas: Showdown between Peru’s executive and legislative powers to intensify Sectors: all Key Risks: governability; policy continuity; political instability In Peru, President Martin Vizcarra stepped-up pressure on the opposition-controlled Congress to approve four government-backed anti-corruption bills which require a constitutional reform. On 16 September Vizcarra asked for an extraordinary Congress session to take place on […]
Americas: Brazil’s election campaign to continue to heat up Sectors: all Key Risks: policy continuity; political instability; civil unrest In Brazil, the election campaign ahead of the 7 October general election is expected to continue to heat up. The leftist Workers’ Party (PT) has until 11 September to name imprisoned former president Luiz Inacio Lula […]
Americas: Unprecedented peso rout triggers stricter fiscal deficit targets to contain crisis Sectors: all Key Risks: policy continuity; civil unrest; export taxes In Argentina, President Mauricio Macri announced a cabinet reshuffle and stricter fiscal deficit targets for 2019 following an unprecedented rout on the peso that led the central bank to raise its benchmark rate […]
Americas: Lula’s presidential candidacy formally submitted; likely to stoke further controversy Sectors: all Key Risks: policy continuity; political instability; civil unrest On 15 August in Brazil, the leftist Workers’ Party (PT) formally registered imprisoned former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva as its presidential candidate for the upcoming 7 October general elections. Over the coming […]
Americas: UN-backed Commission asks to revoke Guatemala’s President immunity Sectors: all Key Risks: civil unrest; corruption fallout; political instability; armed clashes In Guatemala, the Attorney General and the UN-backed Commission against Corruption and Impunity asked Congress on 10 August to revoke President Jimmy Morales’ immunity from prosecution, which would enable an investigation over an alleged […]
Americas: Centre-right Duque to take office in Colombia; ELN peace talks at risk Sectors: all Key Risks: policy continuity; terrorism; targeted attacks; kidnapping In Colombia, centre-right president-elect Ivan Duque will take office on 7 August. Although the new administration is expected to guarantee stability and broad policy continuity, Duque will be tested on economic performance, […]
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