Insights
Americas: Haiti to face further disruption amid violent unrest over fuel price hike Sectors: all Key Risks: lootings; violent unrest; travel disruption In Haiti, violent unrest has been observed since 6 July across the country following the government’s controversial decision to raise fuel prices. The highly disruptive protests and blockades may continue over the coming […]
Americas: ELN and government scheduled to resume peace talks Sectors: all Key Risks: policy continuity; terrorism; targeted attacks In Colombia, the government and the ELN guerrillas are expected to launch the sixth round of formal peace talks on 2 July in Cuba’s capital Havana. The sixth round was originally scheduled to begin on 20 June […]
Americas: Mexico set to elect leftist president amid record-high violence Sectors: all Key Risks: policy continuity; targeted political violence; contract alteration In Mexico, general elections are scheduled to take place on 1 July. Leftist candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) of the MORENA party has consistently been the frontrunner in the polls and is expected […]
Americas: Dialogue to ease tensions to remain at risk in Nicaragua Sectors: all Key Risks: political stability; policy continuity; violent unrest In Nicaragua, the government and opposition representatives resumed a Catholic Church-mediated dialogue on 15 June to try to end a crisis in which at least 178 people have been killed since 18 April. Despite […]
Americas: Right-wing Duque increasingly likely to win Colombia’s 17 June presidential runoff Sectors: all Key Risks: political violence; policy continuity In Colombia, a presidential runoff is scheduled to take place on 17 June. Right-wing Democratic Centre (DC) party candidate Ivan Duque leads in the last poll released before the upcoming vote. According to the poll, […]
Americas: Colombia to hold presidential election on 27 May Sectors: all Key Risks: political violence; policy continuity In Colombia, presidential elections are scheduled to take place on 27 May. According to the last polls to be published before the vote, centre-right Democratic Centre party candidate Ivan Duque remains the frontrunner. According to Invamer, Duque is […]
AKE’s Senior Political Risk Analyst Maximilian Hess has published a new piece with Foreign Policy, examining the collapse of CEFC China Energy’s planned investment into Russian state oil giant Rosneft. The piece looks at what insights can be drawn from the deal’s collapse and highlights the risks associated with Rosneft’s assertive foreign policy agenda.
Americas: Security continues to deteriorate in Ecuador’s northern border Sectors: all Key Risks: terrorism; targeted attacks; kidnapping; extortion In Ecuador, further security-force operations should be expected in the northern provinces bordering Colombia as the government increases efforts to crackdown and capture members of the Oliver Sinisterra Front, a criminal group made up of former Colombian […]
Americas: Nicaragua to remain at risk of further violent unrest Sectors: all Key Risks: political stability; policy continuity; violent unrest In Nicaragua, the risk of further unrest and associated violence will persist at least over the coming months, despite President Daniel Ortega’s decision on 22 April to cancel controversial social security reforms approved on 16 […]
Americas: Cuba to undergo heavily controlled presidential transition Sectors: all Key Risks: political stability; policy continuity In Cuba, 19 April will mark the end of the Castro era. The National Assembly’s 605 lawmakers endorsed in the 11 March one-party vote are expected to elect 57-year old First Vice President Miguel Diaz-Canel as the communist country’s […]
Americas: Electoral uncertainty to increase following Lula’s arrest Sectors: all Key Risks: policy continuity; political stability In Brazil, unprecedented levels of uncertainty over who will win the presidency on 7 October will increase following the arrest of former president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva on 7 April. Lula had until 5PM on […]
Americas: Last oil and gas auctions before October’s elections Sectors: oil and gas Key Risks: policy continuity; political stability In Brazil, 70 onshore and offshore oil and gas blocks will be auctioned on 29 March while the fourth subsalt round is scheduled for 7 June. These might be the last opportunities for major oil companies […]
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