Insights
Americas: Government and ELN to discuss bilateral ceasefire extension Sectors: all Key Risks: terrorism; insurgency In Colombia, the government and the ELN guerrillas have recently stated in separate announcements that they stand ready to potentially renew the bilateral ceasefire agreement in place since 1 October 2017 which comes to an end on 9 January. On […]
Americas: Peru’s President Kuczynski to face impeachment vote Sectors: all Key Risks: policy continuity; political stability; governability In Peru, centre-right President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski will face an impeachment vote on 21 December triggered by bribery allegations linked to the Odebrecht corruption scandal. On 15 December Congress voted 93 to 17 to begin impeachment proceedings against […]
Americas: Uncertainty to persist amid controversial presidential election in Honduras Sectors: all Key Risks: policy continuity; governability; political stability; social unrest In Honduras, the controversial presidential election held on 26 November is likely to keep uncertainty levels high at least over the coming weeks. With 57 per cent of the ballots counted, opposition centre-left candidate […]
Americas: Chile headed to presidential runoff Sectors: all Key Risks: policy continuity; governability In Chile, centre-right former president Sebastian Pinera (2010–2014) will face centre-left Senator Alejandro Guillier, who is supported by most of ruling centre-left Nueva Mayoria coalition parties, in a 17 December presidential runoff. Pinera is likely to win. The 19 November first round […]
AKE’s analyst for Sub-Saharan Africa, Alisha Patel, is featured in CNBC’s coverage of the crisis in Zimbabwe and Mugabe’s prospects for retaining power.
Americas: Venezuelan government to meet with creditors to discuss debt restructuring Sectors: all Key Risks: sovereign default; payment delays; political instability; sanctions In Venezuela, on 13 November the government of President Nicolas Maduro is scheduled to meet with creditors holding US$63bln in bonds to discuss plans to restructure and refinance the debt. The meeting follows […]
Americas: Extractive industries to continue to face risk of disruptive unrest across Peru Sectors: extractive industries Key Risks: disruptive blockades; violent unrest; business interruption In Peru, the extractive industries sector remains exposed to the risk of disruptive unrest. This risk is unlikely to significantly decrease over the coming months despite government efforts to strike […]
Americas: Colombia’s nationwide civic strike to continue to intensify Sectors: oil; cargo transport Key Risks: disruptive blockades; violent unrest; targeted violence In Colombia, a nationwide indefinite strike launched on 23 October by rural workers and social organisations to demand the government fulfil the peace agreement with the FARC is set to continue to intensify […]
Americas: Macri’s government poised to pass its first electoral test Sectors: all Key Risks: political stability; policy continuity In Argentina, midterm legislative elections will take place on 22 October, with the ruling Cambiemos alliance likely to secure a positive result and strengthen its position in Congress. A successful election will not mean achieving a majority […]
Americas: Corruption fallout in Brazil far from over Sectors: construction; oil and gas Key Risks: non-payment; reputational risks In Brazil, corruption fallout is far from over. On 8 October local media reported that the government was seeking US$12.7bln from Andrade Gutierrez as part of an agreement to settle claims related to its involvement in kickback […]
Date first published: 28/09/2017 Key sectors: military and defence; humanitarian aid; internal security Key risks: civil unrest; terrorism; foreign military confrontation Of the 72 per cent of Kurds in and out of the autonomous region who participated in the non-binding referendum on 25 September, 92.73 per cent voted ‘Yes’ to an independent Kurdistan. Celebrations broke out across the […]
Americas: Government and ELN begin temporary bilateral ceasefire Sectors: all Key Risks: terrorism; insurgency In Colombia, the government and the leftist ELN guerrillas began a temporary bilateral ceasefire on 1 October scheduled to last until 9 January 2018, with the possibility of an extension. The agreement, the first in over 50 years of conflict, is […]
