Insights
Americas: Nicaragua to remain at risk of further violent unrest Sectors: all Key Risks: political stability; policy continuity; violent unrest In Nicaragua, the risk of further unrest and associated violence will persist at least over the coming months, despite President Daniel Ortega’s decision on 22 April to cancel controversial social security reforms approved on 16 […]
Americas: Cuba to undergo heavily controlled presidential transition Sectors: all Key Risks: political stability; policy continuity In Cuba, 19 April will mark the end of the Castro era. The National Assembly’s 605 lawmakers endorsed in the 11 March one-party vote are expected to elect 57-year old First Vice President Miguel Diaz-Canel as the communist country’s […]
Americas: Electoral uncertainty to increase following Lula’s arrest Sectors: all Key Risks: policy continuity; political stability In Brazil, unprecedented levels of uncertainty over who will win the presidency on 7 October will increase following the arrest of former president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva on 7 April. Lula had until 5PM on […]
Americas: Last oil and gas auctions before October’s elections Sectors: oil and gas Key Risks: policy continuity; political stability In Brazil, 70 onshore and offshore oil and gas blocks will be auctioned on 29 March while the fourth subsalt round is scheduled for 7 June. These might be the last opportunities for major oil companies […]
AKE’s Senior Political Risk Analyst for Europe and Eurasia, Maximilian Hess, spoke this morning with CNBC’s Joumanna Bercetche regarding the risks associated with Russia’s latest Eurobond issuance, both regarding potential Western sanctions and the bond’s own terms. A clip of the discussion is available here.
Americas: Peru’s President Kuczynski to face second impeachment vote Sectors: all Key Risks: policy continuity; political stability; governability In Peru, centre-right President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski will face an impeachment vote on 22 March triggered by allegedly lying about his links to Brazil’s scandal-ridden engineering conglomerate Odebrecht. Kuczynski narrowly survived a first impeachment vote in December […]
Americas: Venezuelan opposition to resume anti-government protests Sectors: all Key Risks: civil unrest; security-force repression; political violence In Venezuela, the opposition has called for nationwide anti-government demonstrations to take place on 17 March to protest against President Nicolas Maduro and the upcoming snap 20 May presidential election. This is the first time that the opposition […]
AKE’s Senior Political Risk Analyst Maximilian Hess speaks with Deutsche Welle following a poisoning in Britain linked to Russia.
Americas: Targeted violence continues to affect Colombia’s electoral cycle Sectors: all Key Risks: targeted attacks; terrorism; political polarisation In Colombia, targeted political violence is expected to continue to affect the electoral race towards the 11 March legislative elections and the 27 May presidential election. On 2 March leftist presidential candidate Gustavo Petro’s convoy was attacked […]
Americas: Macri to inaugurate Congress’ session; union-led unrest likely Sectors: all Key Risks: union-led unrest; delays to reform agenda; policy continuity In Argentina, President Mauricio Macri is set to inaugurate the 136th ordinary session of Congress on 1 March with a speech that will come a little over a week after a massive demonstration led […]
Americas: Brazil’s Congress to discuss government-backed pension reform Sectors: all Key Risks: policy uncertainty; delays to fiscal reform agenda In Brazil, Congress is scheduled to vote on President Michel Temer’s pension reform, a long-awaited fiscal austerity measure seen as crucial to shore up the budget. Discussions are scheduled to begin on 19 February although they […]
Americas: Uncertainty over the future of ELN peace talks to persist Sectors: all Key Risks: terrorism; insurgency In Colombia, uncertainty over the future of the currently suspended peace talks between the government and the ELN guerrillas is likely to persist given a spike in ELN attacks. On 10 February President Juan Manuel Santos reiterated that […]
