India – China – Bhutan: A Sino-Indian military stand-off

Date first published: 11/07/2017 Key sectors: all Key risks: PV, war Independent India has fought five wars. Four were with Pakistan, and ended in India’s favour. In contrast, the 1962 Sino-India war, fought in harsh mountainous conditions, was a resounding defeat for Delhi and resulted in the Aksai Chin region coming under Beijing’s control. Land disputes persist along…

Brazil: Temer’s fight for survival

Date first published: 04/07/2017 Key sectors: all Key risks: political stability; governability; corruption fall-out; strikes and demonstrations On 26 June Michel Temer became the first sitting Brazilian president to be charged with corruption. This might seem to be just another move in the judiciary’s attempt to dismantle the ever-growing web of corruption ensnaring Brazilian politicians, the business elite…

Saudi Arabia: A king in waiting

Royal reshuffle to have profound consequences Date first published: 27/06/2017 Key sectors: banking; finance; consumer retail; industry; energy Key risks: frustration of process; contract frustration; delayed payments Saudi royals apparently keep very late hours: the most important royal decrees always come in the middle of the night. The announcement on 21 June by the state…

Sub-Saharan Africa: #BringBackOurInternet

Date first published: 20/06/2017 Key sectors: IT; media; online retail Key risks: reputational; democratic backsliding; business interruption; detention; censorship Silicon Savannah For sub-Saharan Africa’s youthful population, armed with smartphones and taking advantage of rapid infrastructure developments, the internet has become a key communications tool, source of news media and means of engaging in politics: indeed, Africans are four…

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United Kingdom: Attempt to stabilise Westminster destabilises Northern Ireland

Date first published: 13/06/2017 Key sectors: all Key risks: political stability A formal agreement that involves Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) supporting a minority government in Westminster may sound the death knell for the Good Friday Agreement. The pact was already under threat as Sinn Fein, Northern Ireland’s largest republican party, and the DUP, its largest…