Nigeira: a decade of Boko Haram?

Date first published: 03/04/2018 Key sectors:all Key risks:terrorism; insurgency In June 2017 Nigeria’s army chief, Tukur Buratai, declared that Boko Haram had been defeated. President Muhammadu Buhari made a similar claim in December 2015. Yet the group continues to conduct regular attacks in Nigeria’s northeast, as well as further afield across the Lake Chad Basin...

Ones to Watch, 9 April 2018

Americas: Electoral uncertainty to increase following Lula’s arrest   Sectors: all Key Risks: policy continuity; political stability In Brazil, unprecedented levels of uncertainty over who will win the presidency on 7 October will increase following the arrest of former president and frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva on 7 April. Lula had until 5PM...

Ones to Watch, 26 March 2018

Americas: Last oil and gas auctions before October’s elections Sectors: oil and gas Key Risks: policy continuity; political stability In Brazil, 70 onshore and offshore oil and gas blocks will be auctioned on 29 March while the fourth subsalt round is scheduled for 7 June. These might be the last opportunities for major oil...

Post-Castro scenarios

Date first published: 15/03/2018 Key sectors: all Key risks: political stability; policy continuity 19 April will mark the end of the Castro era in Cuba. On that day, the National Assembly’s 605 lawmakers endorsed in the 11 March one-party vote are expected to elect 57-year old First Vice President Miguel Diaz-Canel as the communist country’s next president....