Americas: Paraguay’s ruling Colorado party seeks to consolidate power in local elections Sectors: all Key Risks: political instability; policy continuity; civil unrest In Paraguay, the ruling centre-right Colorado Party will seek to consolidate its power in the upcoming 10 October midterm local elections. The vote, postponed from November 2020 due to COVID-19, will be tightly […]
Date first published: 28/09/2021 Key sectors: all Key risks: terrorism; border conflicts Risk development For the first time in decades, inflation is a risk to the global economic outlook. Inflation in the G-20 is forecast to increase to 3.7 per cent this year, increasing to 3.9 per cent in 2022. By historical standards, inflation […]
Americas: Talks between Venezuela’s Maduro and opposition continue with delays in Mexico City Sectors: all Key Risks: political instability; economic risks; sanctions; protests In Venezuela, negotiations between President Nicolas Maduro’s government and the opposition resumed on 26 September after a two-day delay caused by the late arrival of Maduro’s delegation in Mexico City. The latest […]
Date first published: 21/09/2021 Key sectors: various Key risks:terrorism Risk development The Taliban victory in Afghanistan has raised fears of a revival of Islamist terrorism across Southeast Asia. These fears appear to be justified. On 20 August, Indonesian police announced they had foiled an unspecified terrorist attack due to occur on 17 August, the country’s […]
Americas: Dismissal of attorney general, justice minister plunge Haiti into another crisis Sectors: all Key Risks: political instability; governability; violent unrest In Haiti, instability risks will remain very high after the country plunged into yet another political crisis. On 15 September interim prime minister Henry replaced Justice Minister Rockfeller Vincent with Interior Minister Liszt Quitel, […]
Date first published: 14/09/2021 Key sectors: all; mining Key risks: political instability; policy uncertainty; civil unrest Risk development On 5 September President Alpha Conde was detained by members of the country’s special forces led by Colonel MamadyDoumbouya after an exchange of heavy gunfire outside the Presidential Palace in the capital Conakry. Doumbouya’s newly established […]
Americas: Trudeau’s Liberal Party risks possible defeat in Canada’s 20 September snap elections Sectors: all Key Risks: political instability; policy continuity; civil unrest In Canada, the main opposition Conservative Party could potentially challenge Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s efforts to secure re-election in the 20 September snap federal elections. Trudeau had counted on his government’s COVID-19 […]
Date first published: 02/09/2021 Key sectors: various Key risks: political instability; civil unrest; economic Risk development On 17-19 September, Russia will hold elections for the State Duma, its main legislative chamber. The election will be the least free since President Vladimir Putin’s first election in 2000. State oppression against political opposition, activism and independent media […]
Americas: Argentina’s ruling FdT coalition to face first major electoral test in midterm primaries Sectors: all Key Risks: political instability; policy continuity; civil unrest In Argentina, the ruling Frente de Todos (FdT) leftist coalition will face its first major electoral test in the upcoming 12 September midterm primaries, given that primary elections are considered a […]
Date first published: 31/08/2021 Key sectors: all Key risks: war on land; default hyperinflation; business disruption; sanctions Risk development On 23 August the International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced that their global allocation of US$650bln special drawing rights (SDRs) came into effect. On 25 August the Central Bank of Yemen based in Aden confirmed their […]
Americas: Opposition to announce participation in Venezuela’s upcoming regional, local vote Sectors: all Key Risks: political instability; electoral violence; civil unrest In Venezuela, the four main opposition parties – Primero Justicia, Accion Democratica, Un Nuevo Tiempo and Voluntad Popular – plan to announce their intention to participate in the 21 November regional and local elections, […]
Date first published: 24/08/2021 Key sectors: all Key risks: war on land; political violence; terrorism; political instability; policy uncertainty Risk development On 15 August, Taliban militants entered Kabul, overrunning the presidential palace 20 years after the United States (US)-led coalition ousted the group in 2001. The move came after rapid Taliban territorial gains which […]
