Will France’s two-round electoral system fail?

Date first published: 20/04/2017 Key sectors: all Key risks: political stability The outcome of France’s upcoming 28 April first-round presidential election will likely be very tight, with all the first four contenders having significant changes of reaching the run-off. Far-left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon has surged dramatically in polls in recent weeks, raising the real possibility of...

Ones to Watch: 24 April 2017

Americas: anti-government demonstrations to continue in Venezuela; high risk of violence Sectors: all Key Risks: civil unrest; violent clashes; political instability; looting In Venezuela, anti-government demonstrations are expected to persist at least over the coming days as the opposition plans to continue to take to the streets to demand early presidential elections, the release...

AKE Senior Analyst Max Hess speaks with BBC

AKE Senior Political Risk Analyst Max Hess spoke with BBC Radio 5 Live to discuss relations between Russia and the United Kingdom and between Russia and the United States. The interview is available on the BBC’s website at the following link, with the relevant portion beginning at 34:00....

No Syrian misadventure yet

Date first published: 11/04/2017 Key sectors: security; infrastructure Key risks: war on land; political violence; terrorism On 4 April, a fixed-wing aircraft dropped four missiles on the town of Khan Shaykhun in rebel-controlled Idlib province. The international community mobilised swiftly after video and photography from the town suggested one of those four carried bombs loaded with...

A CFA Haven

Key sectors: all Key risks: CIET; CF ‘Currency is not a technical issue’, wrote former French Prime Minister Edouard Balladur, instead ‘it affects the independence of nations.’ Balladur was writing about plans to create the Euro, but he could have been referring to the Central and West African CFA Francs. Those that protested the...